Has the Italian finally come through his slump?
The man from Tuscany lost five of six consecutive singles matches before the Grand Slam on hard court at Flushing Meadows and was eliminated 1-3 in the first round at Wimbledon against Nikoloz Basilashvili (ATP 126), among others. Many did not expect him to advance to the round of 16 with three wins. According to the leading bookmakers, the bet for Lorenzo Musetti against Jaume Munar is that the Italian will advance to the quarterfinals, where he could potentially face his compatriot Jannik Sinner under much more favorable conditions.
This is a rather bold assessment, as the Spaniard clearly has the upper hand in head-to-head matches, having won 80 percent of all previous encounters with Musetti. However, Munar is entering new territory. While the Italian has already reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam twice, at Wimbledon in 2024 and at the French Open in 2025, the Mallorcan is in the round of the best 16 players for the first time ever – in what is, mind you, already his 28th Grand Slam men’s singles tournament. Since the outcome of the match is still open and we expect a close match, we recommend the Musetti vs. Munar prediction that at least one set will be decided in a tiebreak.
What is certainly curious is the fact that Jaume Munar had only won a single singles match before the 2025 US Open on the hard court Grand Slam in New York City, but has now won three matches in a row. He only faced real resistance briefly in his opening match against lucky loser Jaime Faria (3-1), before not dropping another set against either Gabriel Diallo (3-0) or Zizou Bergs (3-0). The 28-year-old even managed an incredible seven breaks against the Belgian in the third round.
Lorenzo Musetti – Jaume Munar Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:4
The two players have met five times so far, with the Spaniard coming out on top in four of those encounters – including the only singles match in 2025, which dates back to January 3. At the Hong Kong Tennis Open, Jaume Munar defeated the Italian 2:1 (2:6, 7:6, and 7:5) in a very close match over 33 games.
Lorenzo Musetti – Jaume Munar Tip
In our opinion, the betting odds offered by German-licensed bookmakers are far too heavily weighted in favor of Lorenzo Musetti against Jaume Munar, who is 34 places higher in the ATP world rankings but has lost four of his five previous encounters with the Spaniard. The Mallorcan’s recent form also speaks in his favor, as Lorenzo Musetti has lost four of his last five singles matches in the run-up to the 2025 US Open – including a first-round exit at the Wimbledon Championships against an opponent ranked outside the top 100.
It is clear that reaching the US Open quarterfinals would be the greatest success at Flushing Meadows to date for both opponents. Looking at the one-sided odds, it is also tempting to flirt with the prediction that Lorenzo Musetti will prevail against Jaume Munar. Ultimately, however, there are too many variables at play. For example, the Mallorcan has repeatedly had problems with his own serve.
Instead, we are going for the tip that at least one set will be decided in a tiebreak, which was also the case in the hard-fought hard court duel between the two athletes in January 2025. Bet365 is offering odds of 1.58 for over 0.5 tiebreaks, which we are betting on with six out of ten units.
