Will Altmaier show improvement on hard court?
Preparations for the last Grand Slam of the 2025 calendar year have begun. While some players are still enjoying a tournament on clay, others are pushing for an earlier return to hard court – the surface of the 2025 US Open. The latter category includes the two opponents in the first round of the Mubadala Citi DC Open from our Arnaldi vs. Altmaier tip.
The German number two is already playing his second hard court tournament following his first-round exit at Wimbledon (0-3 vs. Gabriel Diallo). However, the 26-year-old was unable to gain more than a first impression of the changed conditions in Mexico (Los Cabos) during his second-round defeat to Tristan Schoolkate (0-2). In the Arnaldi – Altmaier prediction, the man with the one-handed backhand is once again facing an early exit from the tournament.
Matteo Arnaldi – Statistics & current form
The Italian has been consistently ranked in the top 50 of the ATP rankings since September 2023. However, Arnaldi has remained relatively inconspicuous in Grand Slam tournaments. The 24-year-old has emerged from the three previous major tournaments of the 2025 calendar year with only one victory (3:2 vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime at Roland Garros).
The protégé of Alessando Petrone and Matteo Civarolo will be grateful to return to hard courts after a disastrous grass court season. The 24-year-old has suffered three defeats in a row, but this has not had too negative an impact on our Arnaldi vs. Altmaier tip.
Arnaldi is having a solid season overall and has a balanced record of 15-15 wins so far. The decision to compete in the ATP 500 tournament in Washington for the first time seems like a good one. The Italian performed excellently in the US at the beginning of the year.
Arnaldi is the favorite
After the Italian had to leave the Australian Open after the first round (1:3 vs. Lorenzo Musetti), he continued his season in the USA. There, the 24-year-old presented himself in magnificent form, reaching the quarter-finals in both Dallas and Delray Beach.
Arnaldo made the most of the first Masters tournament of the year (Indian Wells). He won against Andrey Rublev (2:0) in the second round and advanced to the third round. The victory against the top 10 player has certainly had a positive impact on the current Arnaldi vs. Altmaier odds.
Arnaldi played even better in Madrid, where he defeated Novak Djokovic (2-0) and Frances Tiafoe (2-0) before being eliminated in the quarterfinals by Jack Draper (0-2). The 24-year-old tends to perform best on clay. However, the switch to hard courts does not come at a bad time for the world number 44. Arnaldi has never had a negative annual record on this surface during his career.
Daniel Altmaier – Statistics & current form
Altmaier is probably glad to have the grass court season behind him. His run to the fourth round of Roland Garros (0-3 vs. Frances Tiafoe) should have generated some positive momentum and brought him closer to the world’s top 32.
However, the 26-year-old won only two of seven matches in the run-up to the Arnaldi vs. Altmaier prediction and had an unfortunate second-round match in Los Cabos (0:2 vs. Tristan Schoolkate). Unlike his first-round opponent, his record on tour this year is still negative (14-18).
However, the Kempen native is not having a bad season. Including the Challenger tournaments, Altmaier has lifted his annual record back into positive territory (25-24). Nevertheless, the man with the one-handed backhand is considered the underdog in the Arnaldi vs. Altmaier betting odds.
Altmaier wins only a few matches
The surface is one reason to bet against the Kempen native. Since the beginning of 2025, Altmaier has lost more hard court matches (9) than he has won (6). This trend has been evident for several seasons now, in conjunction with his 56th place in the ATP world rankings.
Since 2022, Altmaier has ended every calendar year with a negative record on hard courts. Over the past 52 weeks, the 26-year-old has played a total of 24 matches on this surface (10-14). A successful bet also depends heavily on the course of the match.
The first set is extremely important for Altmaier. Over the past 52 weeks, the Kempen native has lost 23 of 26 matches when he dropped the first set. In contrast, he has a 93.3 percent win rate when he wins the first set.
Matteo Arnaldi – Daniel Altmaier Head-to-head record / H2H record
This is the first meeting between the two opponents at tour level. Arnaldi won 16 of 31 hard court matches last year and has a positive set ratio (40-37). For Altmaier, on the other hand, this ratio is negative (25-33).
Matteo Arnaldi – Daniel Altmaier Tip
We can well imagine using a sports betting bonus for the Arnaldi vs. Altmaier tip. The Italian has consistently ranked between 30th and 50th in the ATP world rankings in recent seasons and, from his own perspective, has built up a comfortable relationship with the world’s hard courts.
However, a simple “Arnaldi win” does not yield any significant profit, which is why a match combination is necessary. Altmaier matches have tended to be decided in the first set in the past 52 weeks. We are picking up on this with “Arnaldi wins the first set & the match.”