Will the Muscovite once again prove to be Fritz’s nemesis?

The two athletes have crossed paths twice before, and both times Taylor Fritz has been defeated by Karen Khachanov. While the Muscovite would like to see this quarterfinal end with “all good things come in threes,” the Californian is eager to end his losing streak against the Russian. Regardless of which Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov prediction comes out on top, one thing is clear: one player will be breaking new ground. For both opponents, it would be their first ever semifinal at the Wimbledon Championships.

While the head-to-head record favors the Muscovite, the American has been the more consistent performer recently. Fritz has also won two titles on grass in 2025. However, the Russian’s powerful serve is almost impossible to defend on this surface. The probability of a tiebreak is correspondingly high, and the prediction for Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov is that this duel will not be decided by either player in three sets.

Although there is a high risk involved, it is not uninteresting to consider betting on the underdog in this match – if only because the odds are high for Taylor Fritz against Karen Khachanov. Winamax is offering top odds of 3.65 for the Russian’s third victory in his third match against the Californian. Since we expect a closely contested match with a slight advantage for the American and therefore assume a 60:40 chance distribution, the value is definitely there. Even a 28 percent chance of victory for Karen Khachanov would result in a positive expected value.

Taylor Fritz – Statistics & current form

28-year-old American Taylor Fritz, who until a few years ago was always hovering around the top 20 in the ATP world rankings, has now firmly established himself in the top 10. At Wimbledon, the Californian has now reached at least the quarterfinals for the fifth time in eight consecutive Grand Slams. However, he has only survived this round once in his career – at the 2024 US Open, where his journey ended in the final.

If Taylor Fritz beats Karen Khachanov, the world number five will reach the last four on the hallowed turf of the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club for the first time ever.

Taylor Fritz wants to continue his strong grass court season

Nevertheless, it has to be said that Taylor Fritz and grass are a perfect match. The 1.96-meter-tall player is one of the ATP Tour’s serving giants and has won five of his ten singles titles on this surface, including both tournament victories in 2025, which the American secured in Stuttgart and Eastbourne in June. The Californian also has the advantage of having spent just 41 minutes on court in the round of 16 against Jordan Thompson (ATP 44).

After a clear 6-1 win in the first set, his Australian opponent had to throw in the towel after 19 minutes in the second set, trailing 0-3 due to injury. This means that the 28-year-old will start the second week at Wimbledon with the necessary freshness, where he will once again want to flex his muscles with his incredibly powerful serve. Remarkably, Taylor Fritz achieved a perfect 100 percent first serve percentage against Jordan Thompson, as well as a 92 percent second serve percentage.

Karen Khachanov – Statistics & current form

Karen Khachanov is currently in his tenth season on the ATP Tour, but has only won one major title, the Paris Masters in 2018. Otherwise, the 29-year-old Russian has only appeared at the 2021 Summer Olympics, where he reached the final and won the silver medal. Most recently, he slipped to 20th in the ATP world rankings in a title-less 2025 season with 18 wins and 15 losses.

The Muscovite’s run at the Wimbledon Championships therefore came somewhat out of the blue. For the first time since 2021, Karen Khachanov has now advanced to the quarterfinals of the only Grand Slam tournament played on grass. He had to work particularly hard in the second and third rounds, but after falling behind 1-2, he fought back in both cases and managed to win 3-2.

Karen Khachanov with a strong performance in the round of 16

In the round of 16, the Russian then played really well. Against Poland’s Kamil Majchrzak (ATP 109), who had previously knocked Zverev’s conqueror Arthur Rinderknech out of the competition, the 29-year-old secured a clean 3-0 victory (6-4, 6-2, 6-3) in just 108 minutes. Khachanov also showed off his strength on his own serve, dropping only one service game and winning 79 percent of points on his first serve and 67 percent on his second.

A direct comparison also favors the Muscovite, who has won both of his previous encounters with the Californian. So we’re a little surprised that the odds are so clearly against the Russian in Taylor Fritz vs. Karen Khachanov. At Winamax, where new customers can get a €10 free bet on top of the usual welcome offer with our exclusive Winamax promo code, the odds for the next win of the world number 20 are 3.65.

Taylor Fritz – Karen Khachanov Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Head to head: 0:2

The two athletes have faced each other twice so far, and in both cases Karen Khachanov came out on top against Taylor Fritz. However, it should be noted that their last meeting was almost exactly five and a half years ago. In this respect, the cards are being reshuffled to some extent.

Taylor Fritz – Karen Khachanov Tip

In principle, the trend for Taylor Fritz against Karen Khachanov points to the American reaching the semi-finals. However, the head-to-head comparison also introduces a certain amount of uncertainty. After all, the Russian has always had a knack for the American. The 29-year-old Muscovite is also a classic serve giant and is particularly difficult to break on the fast grass at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club. It is therefore anything but unlikely that one or two sets will be decided in a tiebreak after six games won on serve at 6-6.

Although the betting odds for Taylor Fritz against Karen Khachanov offer some value for a Russian victory, the safer option is to bet that this match will not be decided in three sets, but will be a long one. We therefore recommend betting on over 3.5 sets, which we are playing at AdmiralBet at odds of 1.52 with six out of ten units.