Basques strong at home challenge MUFC under pressure
On May 21, the UEFA Europa League final will take place at the Estadio de San Mamés. Four clubs still have hopes of winning the title, including the club that would enjoy home advantage in the final: Athletic Bilbao. On their way to the “Finale Dahoam,” they will have to overcome a real hurdle in the semi-finals in the form of the English record champions. Considering how both teams have performed so far this season, however, betting on Athletic Bilbao against Manchester United is anything but uninteresting.
While last year’s Copa del Rey winners, currently fourth in La Liga, have a very good chance of qualifying for next season’s Champions League, the Red Devils are facing their worst-ever finish in the Premier League. That is precisely why there is so much pressure on Bruno Fernandes and his teammates, who can only salvage a completely botched season by winning the Europa League. However, given their recent performances, it seems very risky to predict that Amorim’s team will advance from the semifinal against Athletic Bilbao.
The “Leones” are even considered to have the better chances of winning the first leg. This is also underlined by the odds offered for Athletic Bilbao vs. Manchester United, which put the two-time UEFA Cup finalists from the province of Biscay in the role of favorites. On the three-way market, Interwetten is offering top odds of 2.05 for a home win.
Athletic Bilbao – Statistics & current form
Athletic Club de Bilbao has had a strong 2024/25 season so far. After Ernesto Valverde led the Basques to cup victory and fifth place in La Liga last season, it currently looks as if the experienced head coach could even improve on that output. Currently fourth in the Spanish top flight, the Red and Whites are six points ahead of sixth place and thus in an excellent position in the race for the coveted Champions League tickets with five matchdays to go.
The “Leones” are also in impressive form. They have lost only one of their last ten competitive games – a last-minute 0-1 defeat in the league match at Real Madrid. Also noteworthy: the Basques kept a clean sheet in six of those ten games. In total, they have conceded only four goals and never more than one. With a total of 26 goals conceded, Valverde’s team has the best defense in La Liga.
In the Europa League, six clean sheets in twelve games are also a clear indication that defending is extremely important in their playing philosophy. Consequently, the betting odds for Thursday evening’s Europa League semi-final first leg between Athletic Bilbao and Manchester United are lower for a game with no more than two goals.
Bilbao is counting on a 100% win rate in EL home games 24/25
It is also worth noting that the Red and Whites, who have their sights set firmly on the final in their own stadium, have not put a foot wrong at home so far. Athletic Club are the only team in this season’s Europa League to have won all six home games and could now become the first club since Ajax Amsterdam in 2016/17 to win seven Europa League home games in a single season.
Considering that Valverde’s team also kept a clean sheet in four of their six home games and won five of them by at least two goals, it is easy to see why they are favorites for Thursday evening’s first leg at San Mamés. The “Leones” are given a 47% chance of winning.
However, those who don’t want to take the risk of a three-way bet can opt for a combination of the double chance 1X with a maximum of one goal in the first 45 minutes. In five of the Basques’ six EL home games, there has been no more than one goal in the first half. Given the importance of the match and the mutual respect between the two sides, we can expect a cautious and neutral first half.
Manchester United – Statistics & current form
Manchester United still has exactly three important games left to play this season in the best-case scenario – all at international level. The semi-final first leg in Bilbao, the return leg at Old Trafford next week and the potential final on May 21. One thing is clear: the English record champions, who now share the title with Liverpool, will only be playing internationally next season if they manage to win the Europa League.
At Bet365, odds of 3.20 are being offered on the Red Devils winning the Athletic Bilbao vs. Manchester United semi-final. For such risky (long-term) bets, it makes sense to find out about the additional betting credits available at Bet365.
MUFC faces a different opponent than Lyon – patience and stability are key
The season of the sleeping giant from the English industrial city must definitely be viewed in two parts. MUFC has made a disastrous impression in the Premier League and both cup competitions and is currently only in 14th place. In the Europa League, however, the Red Devils are the only team that has not suffered a single defeat in the competition so far. They have seven wins and five draws.
Two of these five draws came in the quarter-final first and second legs against Olympique Lyon, when Portuguese head coach Ruben Amórim’s team – after a 2-2 draw in France – were 2-4 down in extra time in the second leg at home, but still managed to secure their place in the semi-finals with three late goals to win 5-4. There is no doubt that this emotional success can unleash new energy, although the defensive weaknesses shown should be given even greater weight.
Because the English record champions are naturally aware of the importance of this match and the Basques’ home strength, the visitors’ top priority will be not to fall behind early and to settle into the game first. Three of MUFC’s last four Europa League away games have been 0-0 at halftime. It is quite possible that Thursday evening’s first leg at San Mamés will follow a similar pattern.
Although United have scored 28 goals in this Europa League season, had the most shots on goal and also had the most touches in the opponent’s box, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bruno Fernandes and Co. come away empty-handed this time. With a lot of courage to take risks, an Athletic Bilbao vs. Manchester United prediction of a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 home win is conceivable. This betting market is available at Winamax at attractive maximum odds of 3.40!
Athletic Bilbao – Manchester United Head-to-head record / H2H record
Bilbao last reached the UEFA Cup final in 2012. On their way there, the Basques eliminated Manchester United, among others. With coaching luminary Marcelo Bielsa on the sidelines, the Red and Whites won both legs. There have been four direct encounters in total, with Bilbao winning three and losing only once. Nevertheless, the H2H record should be taken with a pinch of salt, as the two sides have not faced each other for 13 years. It is nevertheless interesting to note that the English record champions have lost only one of their last 13 Europa League knockout matches against Spanish teams…
Athletic Bilbao – Manchester United Tip
Bilbao coach Ernesto Valverde will not look back fondly on his last international semi-final. Playing for FC Barcelona, Valverde won the first leg of the semi-final 3-0 against Liverpool and had one foot in the final. However, they were beaten 4-0 away at Anfield Road, brutally shattering their dreams of lifting the trophy. The 61-year-old head coach would certainly have no objections to a 3-0 home win on Thursday evening, even though MUFC are, of course, a heavyweight in terms of quality and will be waiting for his Basque protégés.
Nevertheless, I also see slight advantages for the “Leones,” who have won all six of their EL home games this season, keeping four clean sheets, and have also performed significantly better at the national level. However, with the “Red Devils” still unbeaten after twelve EL games, the risk of a three-way bet is too high for me.
Instead, my Athletic Bilbao vs. Manchester United tip is for a 0-0 draw after 45 minutes. The maximum odds are 2.80, and I’m betting three units on this at Interwetten.
