Will TSG avoid a heavy defeat?

While FC Bayern Munich is just looking to finish the season on a high note after the recent celebrations and then enjoy a very short summer break due to the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, TSG Hoffenheim still has to avoid the unlikely but not impossible prospect of relegation. Should Heidenheim win their parallel match, TSG could still be caught if Hoffenheim lose to Bayern by a sufficiently high margin.

Considering that Sinsheim already lost the first leg against the record champions 0-5, the Blue and Whites cannot afford to be too confident. However, when predicting the outcome of Hoffenheim vs. Bayern, it must also be taken into account that the Kraichgauers have won four of their last eight Bundesliga home games against the Reds (one draw, three defeats). No Bundesliga club has picked up more home points against Munich since 2016/17 than TSG (13).

Considering that TSG Hoffenheim have won only one of their last nine Bundesliga games (four draws, four defeats) and have the third-worst defense in the German top flight with 64 goals conceded, anything other than an away win for Munich would be a surprise. However, it is of course not out of the question that Bayern could drop points, as contrary to Max Eberl’s denial earlier in the week, they did travel to Ibiza to celebrate the championship.

Hoffenheim vs. Bayern prediction AI

Supercomputer BETSiE is not averse to our tip of under 4.5 goals in this match with an expected goals value of 3.02, but finds remarkably high value elsewhere. The Hoffenheim vs. Bayern AI prediction is that a maximum of one team will score. The odds of 3.15 that we found for this in the NEO.bet app suggest a probability of 31.7 percent. The AI, on the other hand, puts the chance of at least one team remaining goalless at 47.7 percent, a whopping 16 percent higher. A more positive expected value is practically impossible.

Hoffenheim – Statistics & current form

TSG Hoffenheim now has to secure its place in the league against FC Bayern of all teams. However, the Kraichgauers have annoyed the record champions more often than many other teams in recent years, especially at home. Since the 2016/17 season, Hoffenheim has picked up an impressive 13 points (four wins, one draw) in eight Bundesliga home games against FCB. No other club has picked up more home points against Bayern during this period, with only Borussia Mönchengladbach picking up the same number. Particularly impressive: on matchday 34 of last season, Hoffenheim turned a 0-2 deficit against FCB into a 4-2 win with a hat-trick from Kramaric.

Despite this positive record against the Reds, TSG is currently stuck in one of its weakest seasons since being promoted to the Bundesliga. After 33 matchdays, they have only 32 points to show for their efforts. The only worse season was in 2012/13, when the Blue and Whites only saved themselves in the relegation play-offs. In their last nine Bundesliga games, they have managed just one win (four draws, four defeats), against Mainz in mid-April.

Hoffenheim must be as compact as possible

Particularly alarming: Hoffenheim has the third-weakest defense in the league, conceding 64 goals. Their vulnerability is particularly evident early in the game: in the first half hour, no team conceded more goals than Christian Ilzer’s side (28). The meager record for clean sheets is also telling. TSG has only managed four games without conceding a goal, with only Holstein Kiel performing worse in this category.

Nevertheless, the team is very likely to stay up. Three points and a six-goal better goal difference than Heidenheim, the team directly below them, mean that Hoffenheim is still in a good position even if they lose at home to Bayern Munich. However, the statistics still warn against complacency: in the three-point era, 1. FC Nürnberg once squandered a similar position and ended up being relegated – back in 1998/99, they were in twelfth place with three points and a five-goal advantage over the team in 16th place.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern travels to Sinsheim for the season finale with confidence. The Munich team has only been defeated twice in the current Bundesliga season. The last time they had so few defeats was under Carlo Ancelotti in 2016/17. The FCB has been unbeaten in eight consecutive away games (five wins, three draws). Bayern last achieved an even longer streak under Hansi Flick (ten games between 2019 and 2020).

The Reds’ offense is particularly impressive: with 95 goals, the record champions have the most prolific attack in the league. Michael Olise has been in sparkling form, scoring a goal and providing an assist in each of his last three games. With 14 assists, he is also the league’s top assist provider. The odds for another Olise goal in Hoffenheim vs. Bayern are therefore not without interest. At Bet365, where new customers can get up to $100 in betting credits with the Bet365 bonus, the odds for this are 2.50.

Will Harry Kane add to his goal tally?

But once again, the focus is on Harry Kane. The Englishman leads the scoring charts by a clear margin with 25 goals – five ahead of Dortmund’s Guirassy. If he maintains his lead, he would be the first player in Bundesliga history to win the top scorer title in each of his first two seasons. Since 2000, only Robert Lewandowski has managed to win the top scorer title multiple times in a row.

In goal, there will be a traditional duel between two record-breaking players: Manuel Neuer will face Oliver Baumann for the 25th time in the Bundesliga – the only goalkeeper duel that has taken place more often is between Eike Immel and Uli Stein (27 times). Both are among the most experienced goalkeepers in league history: Neuer is third with 522 Bundesliga appearances, Baumann fifth with 488.

Hoffenheim – Bayern Head-to-head record / H2H record

Head to head: 5 – 7 – 22

A total of 34 competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, with FC Bayern Munich leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 22 wins. The Reds also won the first leg on the Isar with a confident 5-0 victory, but lost their last away game in Kraichgau 2-4. In fact, there have been four defeats in the last four Bundesliga away games at TSG Hoffenheim (three wins, one draw).

Hoffenheim – Bayern Tip

The betting odds from the best bookmakers are clearly and unmistakably in Munich’s favor for the match between Hoffenheim and Bayern, although the latter spent the week in Ibiza celebrating their championship win. Meanwhile, TSG are still fighting to avoid relegation, which they should be able to achieve by simply avoiding a heavy defeat at home. The Sinsheimers have lost only three of their last eight Bundesliga home games against FCB (four wins, one draw).

Our Hoffenheim vs. Bayern prediction is for a match with not too many goals. There is nothing at stake for the Reds, and TSG would have little reason to deviate from a defensive approach even if they were 0-1 or 0-2 down. As a result, there is good value in betting on a maximum of four goals being scored at the PreZero Arena.