Will Valencia remain difficult to beat at home?
This coming weekend, the highest Spanish league will also kick off the new season and provide us with exciting games once again. On Saturday evening (16.08.), for example, Valencia CF and Real Sociedad will face off at the Estadio Mestalla. Historically speaking, this is a real top match, as both clubs have been playing in La Liga for decades and are therefore among the established teams in Spanish soccer. This makes the Valencia vs. Real Sociedad prediction even more difficult!
However, things have not been looking particularly rosy for either club recently, as with only 46 points from 38 games, both teams are just six points above the relegation zone. Based on last season’s results, the Valencia vs. Real Sociedad odds offered by the bookmakers are relatively even. In terms of odds, however, there is still a slight favorite: Valencia.
In our Valencia vs. Real Sociedad prediction, we will now look for possible reasons why German bookmakers are more likely to predict a win for the home team. One reason is easy to find, as the home team’s record last year was very respectable, with 31 points from 19 home games. In addition, Carlos Corberan’s team failed to score only four times at home, finding the back of the net in almost 80% of their games.
The visiting team from San Sebastian cannot compete with that. Sergio Francisco’s team has only managed to pick up 19 points away from home, losing ten games and failing to score in eleven (!) of them. The visitors have therefore rarely picked up points on the road. That was also the case at the Estadio Mestalla in mid-January 2025.
However, there is still reason for hope for the visiting fans. The White and Blues had a promising preseason, remaining unbeaten in five of their six friendly matches. The 0-0 draw against AFC Bournemouth (market value: €420 million) is particularly noteworthy.
By comparison, the Murciélagos won only one of their five test matches and are therefore lagging far behind in terms of results. On the other hand, their schedule was somewhat more difficult, with teams such as Leganes, Gladbach, Turin, and Marseille. So this point does not go as clearly to the visitors as it might seem. We therefore find it somewhat difficult to recommend a Valencia vs. Real Sociedad tip that points to a winner. In the first section of our analysis, we therefore tend toward a goal bet.
Valencia – Real Sociedad Head-to-head record
In the first half of our prediction, we cannot come to a clear conclusion. The home side are very strong at home and difficult to beat at the Estadio Mestalla. However, the visitors have more individual quality and also had the better preparation.
In the H2H comparison, however, the Murciélagos are ahead again, winning 61 of 148 direct duels. San Sebastian has 49 wins. In the recent past, however, the head-to-head record has been completely even (3/4/3), so no clear favorite emerges here either. The Valencia vs. Real Sociedad betting odds are therefore completely justified.
Valencia – Real Sociedad Tip
Taking all of the above factors into account, we have decided to bet on over 1.5 goals in the game. In our opinion, this tip is a gift, because there are usually a few more goals scored at the beginning of the season. In addition, the home team rarely failed to score at home last season, scoring 26 goals in 19 home games. Individually, however, the hosts are clearly inferior (€154 million vs. €284 million) and also had a weaker preseason. For us, this is the decisive reason why we believe both teams will score.
Our risk bet is also derived from the first paragraph under “Tip.” We believe that the Valencia vs. Real Sociedad odds for “both teams to score – yes” are too high and therefore offer plenty of value.
