Will the Colchoneros start the season with a win?
On Sunday, 17.08.2025, FC Espanyol Barcelona and Atletico Madrid will face each other on the first matchday of the Spanish top flight. The roles are clearly defined in advance, as the home side had to fight against relegation last season, while the visitors secured their place in the Champions League without any major problems.
In addition, Diego Simeone’s team strengthened its squad with new signings worth around €224 million, had hardly any notable departures apart from Lino and Reinildo, and is therefore aiming to compete for the championship. It is therefore no surprise that the odds for an Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid prediction clearly favor a home win. However, the Colchoneros have failed to win any of their last four encounters – will this streak continue?
Probably not, because while the Madrid side have significantly improved their squad, the home team have taken a step backwards. With Joan Garcia, the hosts lost not only their goalkeeper but also by far their best player from last season. Without him, the Periquitos would probably have been relegated. In addition, the squad’s value fell by almost €40 million, so anything other than a relegation battle would be nothing short of a sensation.
On paper, there are only two teams with a lower market value than the three promoted teams from La Liga 2. Early on in our Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid prediction, it becomes clear that the two teams are not even close to the same level. It would take a miracle for the Colchoneros to remain winless.
If the home side has a chance, it will be in their own stadium. In the previous season, Manolo Gonzalez’s team picked up 30 of their 42 points at the Estadio Livens Jean Louis, making them a strong home side. On the other hand, the visitors were similarly impressive on the road, picking up 30 points from 19 away games. Only FC Barcelona were significantly better than AM in this regard.
Home advantage therefore plays only a minor role in this match and should not be prioritized. We therefore stick with our Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid tip for an away win, which seems worthwhile and is almost a foregone conclusion. But before we make a recommendation, let’s take a look at the head-to-head comparison between the two teams – perhaps that will change things.
Espanyol Barcelona – Atletico Madrid Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
In the first three sections of our analysis, there are several factors that point to a win for the away team. Before we make our final prediction, let’s see if the head-to-head comparison changes anything. Yes and no, because the Colchoneros have won 93 of the 180 encounters and have only lost 50 times.
However, Diego Simeone’s team has struggled recently and has failed to win any of its last four matches. On the other hand, the Periquitos have been waiting for a win against AM for eight games. A point for the visitors therefore seems very likely and explains why the Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid betting odds for a “X2” are only 1.15.
Espanyol Barcelona – Atletico Madrid Tip
The visiting team’s transfers are making a damn good impression and could even make Diego Simeone’s team a serious title contender. The home side need to think in the opposite direction, as there are few teams that are weaker in terms of quality. We would therefore not be surprised if Manolo Gonzalez’s team find themselves relegated to the second division at the end of the 2025/26 season. The home fans will rarely have cause for celebration.
If you’re looking to take a bit more of a risk, we recommend the Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid odds for “both teams to score – yes.” The home side are clear underdogs, but they are not completely without a chance in their own stadium. In addition, both teams have scored at least one goal in six of their last seven encounters. You can find the best odds for this tip at Interwetten.
