Will the penalty area remain closed for Celta Vigo?
It looks to be a closely contested match, which we will be focusing on in our Dinamo Zagreb vs. Celta Vigo tip. The hosts are in fourth place with seven points after three Europa League matchdays. The Spanish representatives are one point behind but five places lower (9th).
On the pitch and in the Dinamo Zagreb vs. Celta Vigo prediction, we expect to see a prime example of structured defending from the Modri from Croatia. Head coach Mario Kovacevic has designated his own penalty area as a sacred place and has given his team the necessary tools to protect it as best as possible.
After three games in the league phase, the home side has conceded only three goals. Kovacevic’s defensive concept looks even better when you look at the deeper numbers. The Blues have the second-best expected defense in the competition (1.39 xGA).
Hardly any of their opponents’ shots have been truly dangerous – on average, the Croatian representatives have conceded only 0.06 expected goals per shot – the joint best record after three Europa League matchdays. Dinamo Zagreb have the advantage over the fourth-placed team.
Furthermore, we see huge value in the Dinamo Zagreb vs. Celta Vigo betting odds for “Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals,” which does not require a odds boost. The home side may allow opposing teams to have possession in some phases, but they rarely get into the penalty area, let alone into suitable shooting positions.
No other team in the current Europa League season has allowed fewer opponent shots from their own penalty area than Dinamo Zagreb (43.48 percent).
Dinamo Zagreb – Celta Vigo Head-to-head record
Anyone who wants to score goals against the Croatian hosts needs patience, precision – and, in most cases, luck. At first glance, it seems as if Celta Vigo has these qualities. Claudio Giraldez’s team played the most passes into the attacking third (488) after Stuttgart and has already collected 94 touches in the opponent’s penalty area (6th). However, this has only resulted in 4.47 xG and a below-average chance quality of 0.09 xG/shot.
Before the first direct duel, Celta is known for high effort and little effect. A structured build-up can be seen regularly, but the decisive actions in the zones of truth around and in the opponent’s box are missing.
Dinamo Zagreb – Celta Vigo Tip
In addition, Dinamo Zagreb regularly slows down the pace of the game. Kovacevic’s team tends to play a calm and low-risk build-up game. Only three teams covered fewer meters per second on average than the home side (1.57) when in possession.
The pace is no higher at the other end. The Spanish representatives have a similar value (1.58 m/s). In addition, there are usually long periods of possession on both sides, characterized by many passes. There is much to suggest that this will be a low-scoring encounter.
Both head coaches are still waiting in vain for scoring chances from set pieces in the Europa League. Neither Plavi (0.31 xG from set pieces) nor the Sky Blues from Spain (0.43 xG from set pieces) have created any worthwhile scoring opportunities from such sequences.
