How exciting will the Tykes make it?
On paper, it’s obviously a David vs. Goliath situation when the current 17th-placed team in League One visits the third-placed team in the Premier League. However, it is clear that the reigning champions will certainly not be fielding their first-choice team, given their busy schedule, especially as half a dozen injured players are added to those on international duty at the Africa Cup of Nations.
The fact that Arne Slot will probably field a B or even C team in this home game naturally has an impact on our tip for Liverpool vs. Barnsley, although it should be noted that the visitors from South Yorkshire, who also play in red, have lost four of their last six league games (one win, one draw).
Barnsley FC are particularly struggling defensively, conceding a whopping 14 goals in their last six games and 33 goals in total in 21 League One games in the 2025/26 season. Basically, it is unlikely that the Colliers will be successful in parking the bus in their own penalty area at Anfield Stadium. Nevertheless, even Liverpool’s first team has had problems scoring goals at times this season. Although LFC is unbeaten in ten games across all competitions (five wins, five draws), the Scousers have failed to score in two of their last three games, including Thursday night’s 0-0 draw with Arsenal FC. As we don’t expect a goal fest on the Mersey as a result, the option in the Liverpool vs. Barnsley prediction to apply a +3 handicap to the visitors is very interesting.
The approach of giving Barnsley FC a positive handicap conveniently covers all surprises. Interestingly, the third-division side also managed to beat the Reds in their last meeting to date. Seventeen years ago, the Tykes also won 2-1 at Anfield in the FA Cup, knocking the favored Scousers out of the competition.
An alternative approach would be to bet on under goals. Winamax offers odds of 1.68 on the Asian line of under 4.0 goals for Liverpool vs. Barnsley, which covers many eventualities and also promises value.
Liverpool – Barnsley Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
Head to head: 14 – 4 – 5
A total of 23 matches have been played between the two teams so far, with Liverpool FC leading the head-to-head comparison with 14 wins. However, two of the only five defeats against Barnsley FC have come in the last three meetings, with LFC losing to the Tykes at their home ground Anfield Road – including in the last duel to date, which dates back to the 2007/08 FA Cup. At that time, the Scousers lost 1-2 to the Colliers.
Liverpool – Barnsley Tip
In Liverpool vs. Barnsley, the betting odds from the top bookmakers are clearly in favor of the home side, who, however, after their exhausting away game at Arsenal FC and with the important Premier League home game against Burnley ahead of them, will certainly not be fielding their strongest team in this FA Cup third-round match.
Considering that the 17th-placed team in the third-tier League One is coming to the Mersey, that should not be necessary. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that 17 years ago, LFC stumbled at home in the most important English cup against those very same Tykes (1-2).
Even with their first eleven, the Scousers lacked offensive punch at times in 2025/26. The Reds have not scored more than three goals in any of their last 17 competitive games. In 16 of their last 17 competitive games, they have scored a maximum of two goals. This makes it quite interesting to place a +3 handicap on the visitors from South Yorkshire, which not only includes any cup upset, but also pays off if the Slot team wins at home by a maximum of two goals.
