Will Inter End Their Derby Losing Streak?
On Saturday, the eyes of Italian soccer fans will be on Milan. League-leading Inter faces off against city rival AC Milan. Nerazzurri fans are hoping that this AC Milan vs. Inter Milan match will bring an end to their current losing streak of seven consecutive winless Milan derbies.
If you trust the assessments of the most popular sportsbooks, an AC Milan vs. Inter Milan prediction should favor the league leaders. Cristian Chivu’s squad has yet to lose a single league match this season. The blue-and-blacks have emerged victorious in eight of nine matchdays (1 draw).
Ruben Amorim and his team suffered their first loss of the current Serie A season ahead of this prestigious Milan derby. At home, the Rossoneri ultimately lost 2–4 despite holding a 2–1 halftime lead. A result with implications for the AC Milan vs. Inter Milan betting odds.
Currently, the league leader is the most dominant team in Serie A. The visitors have converted the highest average possession (62.8%) into the most goals (23). The underlying metrics look even stronger, with an xG of 23.19 (1st). The Rossoneri rank four spots behind their city rivals. A higher ranking is currently prevented by their excessively high quality of chances conceded, at 0.12 xGA per shot.
AC Milan vs. Inter Milan Head-to-Head Record
Over the last three matchups, no more than two goals have been scored. Nevertheless, we see value in the “Over” bets on offer. The Nerazzurri have scored 30 goals in twelve competitive matches. In domestic play, the league leaders have scored at least twice in eight of nine matchups.
Ruben Amorim’s team has also been active in the attacking third and the opponent’s penalty area. AC Milan has scored at least two goals in seven of nine Serie A matches. However, their defensive stability has slipped recently. Against Atalanta (3–2) and Bologna (2–4), the Rossoneri conceded a total of six goals. In between, they recorded only a 2–0 victory over Udinese.
AC Milan – Inter Milan Prediction
Cristian Chivu has established quite successful tactical systems at the 21-time Italian champions. Well-organized attacking plays optimally highlight the strengths of individual players. This has resulted in the most shots on goal in the league so far (62).
What’s interesting, however, is the combination of shot volume and quality. On average, the Nerazzurri’s shots are worth 0.13 expected goals—an above-average figure. This becomes even more impressive when we consider how Italian teams typically approach matches against Inter.
Top scorer Lautaro Martinez stands at 4.94 expected goals—surpassed only by Donyell Malen (6.60 xG). Marcus Thuram has also impressed so far with five goals from 3.87 xG. Thanks to their teammates, both players often take shots from promising positions (0.20–0.22 xG/shot).
