Liverpool doomed to win
It wasn’t just in Spain that Xabi Alonso’s dismissal from Real Madrid was met with surprise. Those in charge at Liverpool will also have been watching closely. If Arne Slot continues to stumble in the coming weeks and the Reds fail to deliver results, it would be entirely logical to show the Dutch championship-winning coach the door and bring back the prodigal son from the Basque Country, who already had a legendary spell at Anfield as a player.
On Wednesday evening, in the penultimate matchday of the UEFA Champions League, LFC will do everything in their power with Slot on the sidelines to ensure that a bet on an away win in the Marseille vs. Liverpool match pays off. However, the undertaking in France’s second-largest city will undoubtedly be complicated!
OM are only three points behind the reigning Premier League champions after six matches. While the French are well on their way to qualifying for the playoffs in 16th place, the Reds are still hoping to finish in the top eight, which would mean automatic qualification for the round of 16.
Due to their inferior goal difference, LFC are currently only in ninth place, but they have it in their own hands to climb the table with their away game at the Stade Velodrome and next week’s home game against Qarabag. However, given the recent performances of the star ensemble from the Beatles’ city, it remains to be seen whether a prediction of three points for the visitors between Marseille and Liverpool will actually be successful.
Statistically speaking, a draw in this match can be virtually ruled out. Why? Because Olympique Marseille has not shared points with its opponents in 30 consecutive Champions League matches, and the visitors from the UK have also gone 27 matches in a row without a draw.
Marseille vs. Liverpool AI prediction
Artificial intelligence sees the Premier League club as the clear favorite in this matchup. Based on xG values of 1.29 vs. 1.89, there is a difference of 0.60, which can be equated with the “expected winning margin.” The AI estimates the probability of such an LFC victory at 52.8%. This results in a fair odds of 1.89 for an away win, which is, however, below Betano’s 2.00. Ergo: In the match between Marseille and Liverpool, the AI prediction brings value with three points for the Reds!
Marseille – Statistics & current form
Olympique Marseille has recently significantly improved its starting position in the race to qualify for the knockout stages. Coach Roberto de Zerbi’s team won its last two CL matches, catapulting itself to a fairly secure 16th place in the table. At home against Newcastle United, OM won 2-1, ending a twelve-match winless streak in European competition against English clubs. This was followed in December by an emotional 3-2 win at Royale Union St. Gilloise, which opened the door to the playoffs.
Will Marseille strike early?
Overall, Les Phocéens are on the right track. After a disastrous start to the 2026 calendar year with a 2-0 home defeat to Nantes and an unfortunate defeat in the French Super Cup on penalties against Paris St. Germain, the recent matches in the cup and Ligue 1 have been victorious. Aubameyang and Co. scored a whopping 14 (!) goals in the two games mentioned, eight of them before the break.
Liverpool – Statistics & current form
Liverpool Football Club has not lost a competitive match since the end of November. The Reds have remained unbeaten in twelve consecutive games to date. However, the positive appearance is somewhat deceptive, as only half of these matches were actually won. In addition, there were six draws, four of which were in the last four Premier League games. The low point was the embarrassing 1-1 draw against Burnley at the weekend, which made it clear that, despite improved results, LFC are still lagging well behind their usual performance standards.
Liverpool’s attack continues to cause concern
Florian Wirtz and Co. continue to struggle to create and convert scoring chances, especially in attack. Since mid-October, the Reds have scored more than two goals in only two (!) competitive games, a 3-3 draw against Leeds United and a 4-1 FA Cup win against Barnsley. Because OM is obviously a different caliber of opponent and the French side has a solid defense, having conceded only eight goals in six Champions League matches, I’m not expecting an offensive fireworks display from the Slot XI.
However, given that it will probably take two goals against the in-form Olympique offense to leave the pitch as winners, my preferred approach would be to take advantage of the odds on the double chance 1X before the Marseille vs. Liverpool match.
Marseille – Liverpool Head-to-head record
There have been a total of six encounters between these teams. While Olympique Marseille remained unbeaten in the first three matches between 2004 and 2007 (2-1-0), Liverpool FC has won the last three in a row. However, the most recent encounters took place in 2008, so the relevance of the head-to-head record is limited. Nevertheless, it is interesting to note that the Reds have won only one of their last six away games in France in all competitions – a 1-0 win at Paris St. Germain in March 2025, which did not prevent them from being eliminated.
Marseille – Liverpool Tip
In terms of the table, the OM vs. LFC match is a clash between 16th and ninth. Three points currently separate the clubs. Nevertheless, I expect a closely contested match at the Stade Velodrome on Wednesday evening. Marseille has won two of its three CL home games this season, scoring exactly two goals on average. Liverpool is unbeaten in twelve competitive games, but has rarely been convincing. In four of the last five matches, coach Arne Slot’s team, which remains under close scrutiny, has only managed a draw.
While the home side would probably be satisfied with a draw in their home game, LFC need three points to improve their position in the top eight. In my opinion, however, all of this plays into OM’s hands, which is why I’m going for the double chance 1X tip ahead of the Marseille vs. Liverpool match.
