Will the Frenchman stop the defending champion?

If the prediction that Alexander Bublik will defeat Quentin Halys comes true, it would mark the first time since Robin Haase (2011 and 2012) that a player has successfully defended his title in Kitzbühel. The top seed entered the tournament as the clear favorite and has lived up to that expectation with three straight 2-0 victories. His French challenger, however—who is appearing in the final of an ATP Tour event for only the second time in his career—hasn’t dropped a single set either. What’s impressive is that he actually had to play one more round and has racked up four straight 2-0 victories.

This final takes on a particularly intriguing dynamic, which accordingly affects our Alexander Bublik vs. Quentin Halys prediction. After all, the two players faced off just eight days ago in the quarterfinals of the Swiss Open in Gstaad. That match was also on clay and also at an unusual altitude. In a hard-fought battle spanning a total of 36 games, the Frenchman secured a narrow 2-1 victory over the Kazakh (6-7, 6-4, and 7-6).

It would therefore be entirely conceivable to back the underdog in this matchup, though he’ll have to prove he has the nerves of steel, given that this would be his very first title win on the ATP Tour. Even in the semifinals against Yannick Hanfmann, he didn’t secure his spot in the final until his ninth match point, after failing to convert eight previous ones. The slightly safer bet, therefore, is that the Frenchman will win at least one set in this final.

Alternatively, one could completely avoid predicting who will claim the title at the 82nd Austrian Open in history by betting that it will once again be a close match. In light of the three close sets in Gstaad last week—two of which were decided in tiebreaks—a bet on “over 0.5 tiebreaks” is a good option.

Alexander Bublik – Quentin Halys Head-to-Head Record

Head-to-Head: 0:1

Just last week at the Swiss Open in Gstaad, the two players faced off for the first and only time to date. Although the favorite, Alexander Bublik, took a 1-0 lead in a tiebreak, he ultimately lost to Quentin Halys 1-2 (7-6, 4-6, and 6-7). Now, just eight days later, the two athletes will face off again.

Alexander Bublik – Quentin Halys Prediction

Alexander Bublik entered the tournament as the top seed, remained undefeated without dropping a single set, and—as the defending champion—has now won seven consecutive singles matches in Kitzbühel, which naturally makes him the clear favorite in the final. Were it not for the much-discussed match against Quentin Halys in Switzerland, which will certainly play a role mentally.

This is especially true because the Frenchman advanced to the final in extremely dominant fashion with four 2-0 victories, while the Kazakhstani did allow himself a few brief lapses in form. In the quarterfinals against Alex Molcan, for example, he quickly gave up his break lead due to five double faults, before regaining his composure after an outburst of anger—complete with a smashed racket—and confidently closing out the match.

Consequently, betting on the underdog is tempting, though it also comes with certain risks. The Frenchman already squandered eight match points in the semifinals; he doesn’t exude the necessary composure—especially in decisive moments—partly because he has never won an ATP Tour tournament. So instead of taking a shot on the long shot, we recommend betting that the supposed underdog will win at least one set.