Will the Rothosen get crushed again?

When the two renowned teams Hamburger SV and Bayern Munich last met in the Bundesliga, it often ended in disaster for the Hanseatic team. Among the last 14 encounters alone, there have been two 8-0 victories and a 9-2 win for the German record champions, who have won all of their last eight Bundesliga matches against HSV with a surreal goal difference of 36-1.

Against this backdrop, the tip for HSV against Bayern must first be examined for another landslide victory for Kompany’s team.

However, two aspects are striking here. Firstly, Bayern have not kept a clean sheet in four Bundesliga games in 2026 and even lost for the first time last weekend against Augsburg after 27 Bundesliga games without defeat. Secondly, Hamburger SV have sold themselves dearly in front of their home crowd and are unbeaten in five Bundesliga home games (two wins, three draws). Nevertheless, our prediction for HSV vs. Bayern is a comfortable victory for the Reds, which is why we are ultimately going for a handicap win. However, we are setting this handicap at a comparatively low -1.

It is interesting to note that a maximum of one team will score. On the one hand, after four consecutive league games in which they failed to keep a clean sheet, Munich will certainly want to focus more on a shutout, and on the other hand, the Rothosen have struggled to score goals at times anyway. The Hanseatic team has scored only 17 goals in 18 Bundesliga games and has already played four 0-0 draws in the 2025/26 season.

HSV vs. Bayern Prediction AI

Everything points to another landslide victory for Munich in this duel, which has always been so one-sided in recent years. The top bookmakers have therefore set the odds for a surprise point win for Hamburg a little too high, because from a mathematical point of view, the AI prediction for HSV vs. Bayern is exactly that. Betano offers odds of 3.80 for the double chance 1X, which corresponds to a probability of 26.3 percent. AI, on the other hand, calculates that the Rothosen have a 29.4 percent chance of winning a point. That is more than three percentage points higher, creating a positive expected value.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Hamburger SV is currently experiencing its weakest phase since returning to the top flight of German soccer. Merlin Polzin’s team has now gone five Bundesliga games without a win, the longest winless streak of the season. Most recently, they recorded three draws and two defeats.

HSV is more stable in its own stadium. The team from the Alster is unbeaten in five Bundesliga home games and has earned 83 percent of its points this season at home. No other Bundesliga team has a higher home record this season, which in turn makes it understandable why supercomputer BETSiE considers the odds for HSV to earn a point against Bayern to be playable.

HSV is struggling in attack

However, the big problem for the promoted team is its lack of offensive power. With 17 goals, HSV, together with FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Heidenheim, has the weakest offense in the league. Its conversion rate of 7.2 percent is the lowest in the Bundesliga. The fact that Jean-Luc Dompé, who is the North Germans’ fourth-best scorer with two goals, has now also been suspended certainly does not make the situation any easier.

Defensively, the high number of goalless draws was also striking. After the 0-0 draw at St. Pauli, HSV has already had four goalless draws this season. That is also a league high. In addition, Hamburger SV is the only Bundesliga club to have conceded just one goal from open play in the 2026 calendar year, but now has to defend against what is by far the best offense in German soccer.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich suffered their first Bundesliga defeat after 27 unbeaten games with a 2-1 loss to FC Augsburg. However, the record champions remain unbeaten in 18 Bundesliga games away from home (14 wins, four draws). With 25 points from their first nine away games, FC Bayern set a Bundesliga record this season. Only Munich themselves had achieved this feat before – in the 2012/13 season.

During the week, however, the record champions were back to their old selves. Thanks in part to an outstanding Jonas Urbig, the Reds won 2-1 at PSV Eindhoven, securing second place in the Champions League table. This not only secures them a direct ticket to the round of 16, but also home advantage in the decisive second legs of the next rounds, meaning that everything is still on track on the Isar.

Bayern are more dangerous in front of goal than ever before

With 72 goals after 19 games, FC Bayern also has the best offense in Bundesliga history at this point in the season. Their conversion rate of 19.7 percent is also the highest in the league, which is why it makes even more sense to bet on Kompany’s team securing a clear victory at the Alster in the HSV vs. Bayern match. In addition, they have scored nine goals from corner kicks and a total of 18 goals from set pieces. These are also the best figures in the league.

Defensively, FC Bayern may not have kept a clean sheet in their first four Bundesliga games of 2026, but many other statistics also clearly favor the Reds. Michael Olise recently recorded his 14th assist of the season, just one behind his total tally from last season. Coach Vincent Kompany has the second-best points average of any coach in Bundesliga history with 2.49.

HSV – Bayern Head-to-head record/H2H balance

Head to head: 23 – 23 – 75

A total of 121 matches have already taken place between these two traditional clubs, with FC Bayern Munich leading the head-to-head record very clearly with 75 wins. The German record champions have won their last nine competitive matches in a row against Hamburger SV and celebrated eight wins in a row in the Bundesliga alone, with a goal difference of 36:1. In the first leg on the Isar, the Reds also beat the North Germans 5-0.

HSV – Bayern Tip

In the HSV vs. Bayern match, the betting odds from German-licensed bookmakers are clearly in favor of the visitors from Munich, whose unbeaten streak was broken by a 2-1 home defeat to FC Augsburg, but who remain unbeaten in 18 consecutive Bundesliga away games (14 wins, four draws) .

Accordingly, the prediction for HSV vs. Bayern is that Munich will not only record another away win in the far north, but will also leave the pitch as winners by at least two goals. We are therefore placing a handicap of -1 on the Reds.