Will the Villans play in a more structured manner again?
At times this season, the Villans were considered outsiders for the English championship. This topic has been replaced ahead of our Lille vs. Aston Villa match. Recently, those in charge in Birmingham have been concerned about qualifying for the Champions League.
A trip to France comes at just the right time for the visitors in our Lille vs. Aston Villa prediction. The Villans finished second in the Europa League group stage, winning seven of eight games and conceding only six goals.
The European season has been more inconsistent for Les Dogues so far. LOSC shared the results in the league phase equally, winning four games and losing just as many. The intermediate round was similar. Bruno Genesio and his team lost at home to Red Star Belgrade (0-1). Away from home, the French representatives fought their way into extra time and advanced to the round of 16 thanks to a 2-0 victory.
The visitors’ poor form would be a good argument for this. Unai Emery’s team lost three of their last four competitive games and won only one of their previous six appearances. However, we would refrain from a classic three-way bet in this duel.
Emery has shown tremendous resilience throughout his career, especially with the Villans, and has developed a string of successful match plans – often based on a focused defensive performance. At Tipico, we are going for Lille – Aston Villa odds of 1.77 and betting on “Under 2.5 goals.”
Lille – Aston Villa Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
This pairing last took place in the Conference League. After two evenly matched games and two narrow home wins, the tie went to penalties. The Villans kept their cool and qualified for the semi-finals.
In our opinion, it could be another evenly matched game at the Stade Pierre Mauroy. Lille comes into this match in better form (3W, 1D in their last four competitive games), but has rarely created real chances in the league and has only generated 0.10 expected goals per shot.
Lille – Aston Villa Tip
In addition, the hosts have often had to rely on a strong second half. 71 percent of the Dogues’ Europa League goals so far have come after the break – the second-highest rate among all participating teams. Villa, however, brings one of the best defenses into the round of 16 (six goals conceded).
Emery’s protégés have conceded only three goals after the break and have allowed no more than 131 opponent touches in their own penalty area in their previous appearances (4th). There are hardly any easy routes into the danger zone against the Villans.
In addition, the home side’s recent performances can be put into perspective. Lille has scored less than one expected goal in four of its last five competitive games. In addition, the British side has finished four of its last five competitive games with 1.08 or fewer expected goals conceded. However, the fourth-placed Premier League side has been disappointing offensively, finishing every competitive game since the beginning of February with less than 1.5 goals of its own.
