Can the Reds pull off a comeback?

Liverpool FC is one of the most successful teams in the UEFA Champions League, with six overall titles. However, when the Reds have lost the first leg of a knockout round, they have only advanced twice in history—in 2007 against Chelsea and in 2019 against Barcelona. Nevertheless, top bookmakers have no doubt that Liverpool will advance to the quarterfinals against Galatasaray. The “To Qualify” odds for LFC at Merkur Bets are just 1.35.

The fact that the Turkish champions are not expected to overturn the 1-0 deficit from the first leg at Anfield Road is also due to the Yellow-Reds’ poor away record. Gala has lost 20 of their last 25 Champions League away games (two wins, three draws), which is why our prediction for Liverpool vs. Galatasaray also points to a home win for the Reds. However, we expect the Lions to adopt a very defensive approach, so it shouldn’t be a blowout victory, at least. We are therefore combining Tip 1 with a bet on a maximum of four goals in the match.

In general, Cimbom’s approach is likely designed to keep the game as calm as possible, so that one of those magical evenings where LFC plays itself into a frenzy doesn’t even have a chance to materialize at Anfield. The Turks are in good shape in this regard. They’ve conceded just 18 goals in 26 league games. In the Champions League group stage, they conceded only 11 goals in eight matches. Against this backdrop, the neutral bet on under 3.5 goals makes a lot of sense, as it doesn’t rule out the Turks advancing.

Liverpool vs. Galatasaray AI Prediction

According to the supercomputer’s assessment, nearly all standard odds in this matchup are set so well that there is no positive expected value to be found across the board. The only exception, which the AI prediction accordingly targets in Liverpool vs. Galatasaray, is the bet that Cimbom will also win the second leg. The fact that value arises here is also due to the fact that the bet365 app lists odds of 10.00 for Tip 2, which translates to a 10 percent probability of occurrence even without a calculator. However, the AI calculates an 11.1 percent chance of an away win for the Lions, making it the only value bet in this second leg based on current odds. Due to the enormous risk, caution is still advised when placing a bet.

Liverpool – Statistics & Current Form

Defending champions Liverpool were already out of contention for the 2026 Premier League title, but after a meager haul of just one point from a possible six against Wolverhampton (1-2) and Tottenham (1-1), they now also have to fear for their Champions League qualification spot. The Scousers are currently two points behind fourth place. An elimination from the Champions League would come at the worst possible moment.

Liverpool’s chances of advancing against Galatasaray still look promising, even though LFC has lost all three of its last Champions League matches against the Lions. However, all three defeats came on the road.

Liverpool needs to step up its offensive game

Historically speaking, falling behind in knockout matches is not an entirely new scenario for Liverpool, although comebacks have been very rare. The club has only advanced twice after losing the first leg of a Champions League knockout match. Both times, incidentally, were in the semifinals against Chelsea in 2006/07 and against Barcelona in 2018/19. For a third comeback to succeed, the offense must step up its game, having failed to score in the first leg despite 15 shots (six on target).

Mohamed Salah could play a key role here; he has 49 Champions League goals to his name and could become the first African player to reach the 50-goal mark. Virgil van Dijk has already been involved in five goals in the competition this season, the highest tally for a center back in a Champions League season since Jérôme Boateng in 2014/15.

Galatasaray – Stats & Current Form

Galatasaray Istanbul had two reasons to celebrate last week. Not only did Cimbom win their third consecutive Champions League match against Liverpool, but over the weekend they also secured a convincing 3-0 home victory in the derby against Basaksehir, while rivals Fenerbahce finally suffered their first league defeat of the season on Matchday 26. With a seven-point lead over second place, the Turkish championship is now as good as decided.

The Yellow-Reds now want to focus all their attention on surviving the difficult away match at Anfield Stadium. Historically, Cimbom has struggled in England. The Turks have won only one of their twelve previous away matches against a Premier League team (three draws, eight losses). Consequently, the odds for a Liverpool win against Galatasaray are very high. So high, in fact, that even AI sees value in them.

Galatasaray with a poor away record

Nevertheless, there isn’t much to suggest that Okan Buruk’s team can once again stop the six-time Champions League winners. After all, in their last 25 Champions League away games, they’ve managed just two wins and a whopping 20 losses. In knockout rounds, the Yellow-Reds have lost four of their last five away games in the Champions League. The only exception was a 3-2 win at FC Schalke in 2012/13.

In addition to a solid defensive performance, however, they’ll also need the necessary clinical finishing up front during transition moments. All eyes are on Victor Osimhen, who set up the decisive goal in the first leg, recording his first Champions League assist. With another goal or assist, he would become the Nigerian with the most direct goal contributions in the history of the competition.

Liverpool – Galatasaray Head-to-Head Record

Head to Head: 1 – 2 – 3

Six international competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and with three wins, Galatasaray now leads the head-to-head record. The Turks not only defeated Liverpool FC 1-0 at home during the Champions League group stage but also celebrated a 1-0 home victory over the Reds last Tuesday on the Bosphorus.

Liverpool – Galatasaray Prediction

Historically speaking, LFC has only managed to overcome a first-leg deficit in the Champions League twice. Nevertheless, our prediction for Liverpool vs. Galatasaray is that the Reds will now achieve this feat for the third time. After all, the Turks have been too weak on the road, where they have lost 20 of their last 25 Champions League matches (two wins, three draws). Cimbom does defend very passionately. But with Anfield Stadium behind them, it will be tough for the underdog to hold out for the full 90 minutes.

While we don’t believe the match will swing in the Reds’ favor too early on, we still consider a home win very likely. Since we don’t expect a goal fest, we’re combining Tip 1 with a bet on a maximum of four goals in regular time.