Will Lazio fail to score again?
63 percent of away games without scoring. Three of the last four away matches also ended without a goal. The Romans head to the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona facing a clear reality – and that is exactly what determines our Napoli vs. Lazio Rome tip.
The Biancocelesti can no longer qualify for European competition via Serie A – that much is clear even before our Napoli vs. Lazio Rome prediction. However, an alternative option has emerged in the cup competition. Maurizio Sarri and his team are in the Coppa Italia semifinals.
Our analysis focuses on a specific matchup: the Partenopei’s defense against the Roman Eagles’ offense. Here, we see a clear advantage for the hosts. Additionally, Antonio Conte and his players benefit from the home-field advantage.
The Gli Azzurri are the only team in Italy’s top division yet to lose a home game. On average, SSC has earned 2.47 points per home game—the best record in Serie A. Over the past few weeks, Conte’s defense has once again looked stronger.
The Ciucciarelli have defended so well that they’ve conceded no more than one goal in each of their last six league games. SSC won two of the three previous matchups with a clean sheet.
Napoli – Lazio Rome Head-to-Head Record
Not every game is decided by what happens on the field. Some matches are decided by what doesn’t happen. That’s exactly what the first-leg matchup was all about. Napoli took three points from Rome and returned to southern Italy with a 2-0 away win.
Between kickoff and the final whistle, the Partenopei didn’t face a single Lazio shot on goal. Overall, the quality of the Romans’ chances amounted to 0.65 expected goals. We expect the waves of attacks to be at a similar level this coming weekend.
Napoli – Lazio Rome Prediction
There will be phases where Lazio has possession. The Eagles have made the fifth-most passes in the league (15,846) and completed many of them to their own teammates (86.4 percent pass completion rate). In contrast, their number of passes in the attacking third drops to the middle of the pack when compared league-wide.
It’s just a trend—an indication, but one that suggests where the visiting team’s difficulties lie. Sarri’s side’s attacking play is limited, even though their passing accuracy is solid in many areas of the field. Typical of Conte’s teams, Napoli is fine with allowing opposing teams possession in harmless zones.
As long as it doesn’t lead into the danger zone, the penalty area. The Partenopei allow the lowest rate of opponent shots in their own box in the league (56.10 percent) and boast the fourth-best expected goals against (31.71 xGA).
Both teams are adept at forcing opposing teams into low-probability scoring positions and allow only 0.10 expected goals conceded per shot. Much points to a game of patience in this matchup. Presumably with the better outcome for the second-place team.
