Will the hosts climb back up to fourth place in the standings?
Cesc Fabregas is regarded as an exceptionally analytical and tactically astute coach. Even as a player, the Spaniard compensated for a lack of athleticism with game intelligence and foresight. These qualities also define his team, which we favor in our Como vs. Napoli tip.
No other Serie A team has averaged more possession this season than the Lariani (61.3 percent). Fabregas’s team moves the ball and opponents strategically to open up spaces that creative player Nico Paz, in particular, can exploit. Even the reigning champions are struggling with this in our Como vs. Napoli prediction.
In addition to promising structures in their combination play, the fifth-place team demonstrates recognizable patterns in pressing and counter-pressing—another strength of the home side that we must consider when looking at the Como vs. Napoli betting odds.
Across the league, no other team has scored more goals following high ball recoveries than Fabregas’s side (8). Their attacking runs are accompanied by a controlled defensive setup.
If the home team can close the three-point gap on Juventus Turin in the remaining matchdays, the club from Lake Como will even be competing in the Champions League next season. To do so, however, a home win against the second-place team is absolutely essential.
Como – Napoli Head-to-Head Record
In addition to the scoreless draw in the first half of the season, the two Italian Serie A clubs have already faced off a second time this season. Como won the Coppa Italia match in a penalty shootout and advanced to the semifinals. There, the Lariani lost to Inter Milan (0-0, 2-3) after two evenly matched games.
Statistically speaking, Como is definitely among the top four teams in Serie A this season. At both ends of the field, the individual players and team units mesh together perfectly. Only Juventus (30.52 xGA) has a better expected defensive performance than the fifth-place team (30.75 xGA).
Como – Napoli Prediction
Offensively, the Larini also rank among the top four Italian teams – 54.08 expected goals (4th) are also significantly stronger than Napoli’s 47.14 xG. Cesc Fabregas’s team is not only dangerous from open play but at least as strong from set pieces.
Como has created scoring chances worth 12.52 expected goals from their own set pieces—the third-best figure in the league. Once again, the visitors from southern Italy trail far behind the home side and barely make it into the top half of the table (8th).
With the support of their own fans, the hosts’ attacking play functions even better. Como finished over half of their home games this season with two or more goals scored. On average, Fabregas’s charges averaged 2.00 goals per home game.
