Can De Minaur overcome his nemesis?
A year ago, Alex de Minaur clinched the tournament title in Washington, adding one of his eleven singles titles on the ATP Tour to date. Now, however, the defending champion will have to be extremely careful not to be packing his bags as early as the first round, as the draw has pitted him against one of his absolute nemeses. Given that the Greek player has won twelve of his 13 singles matches against the Australian so far, the odds are looking good for Alex de Minaur against Stefanos Tsitsipas—suggesting that any hopes of defending his title will be dashed early on.
Although this matchup only came about because the Greek player had fallen deep in the world rankings after a long slump and only made it into the main draw of the Washington Open via a wild card, the two-time Grand Slam finalist and former world champion (2019 ATP Finals) finally made his comeback in Gstaad, where he secured his first singles title in a long time. Accordingly, the prediction for Alex de Minaur vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas is that “The Demon” will once again have to concede defeat to his nemesis, who is heading to Washington on the back of a five-match winning streak in singles.
The fact that Stefanos Tsitsipas is still listed as the underdog by the top sportsbooks only further boosts the value of betting on him to dethrone the defending champion right in the first round in Washington.
Meanwhile, those looking for a slightly lower-risk bet can wager that the match will be decided in under 2.5 sets, which would also cover a 2-0 victory for the defending champion. After all, only four of the 13 meetings between the two players have gone the full distance of three sets.
Alex de Minaur – Stefanos Tsitsipas Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1:12
The two players have faced each other 13 times so far, and in 12 of those 13 matches, Stefanos Tsitsipas ultimately prevailed over Alex de Minaur, who managed only a narrow 2-1 victory over the Greek player in Acapulco in 2024.
Even in his otherwise rather lackluster 2026 season, Stefanos Tsitsipas defeated the Australian in straight sets (6:3, 7:6) on hard court in Miami.
Alex de Minaur – Stefanos Tsitsipas Prediction
On the one hand, as the defending champion and the world No. 6, Alex de Minaur is one of the obvious title contenders in Washington; on the other hand, right off the bat, he’s facing not just any qualifier, but a former world champion who has fallen in the rankings—someone who still has the potential to rejoin the world’s elite and perhaps even contend for a Grand Slam title once again. Just the week before last, there was a small turn for the better for Stefanos Tsitsipas, who—after a year-and-a-half slump—won another singles title in Gstaad and heads into this match on a five-match winning streak in singles.
On top of that, the Greek knows exactly how to beat the man from Down Under. Twelve of their 13 previous meetings have gone to Stefanos Tsitsipas, who even in his otherwise lackluster 2026 season—prior to Gstaad—notched a straight-set 2-0 victory over the Australian, incidentally at the Miami Masters, also on a U.S. hard court. Against this backdrop, the bet that the Greek will knock the defending champion out of the tournament offers us the greatest value.
