Can Pafos Upset the Favorites?
On Thursday, Red Bull Salzburg hosts FC Pafos for the first leg of the third qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League. After finishing third last season, Danny Röhl’s team missed out on Champions League qualification, which, given their financial resources, must be considered a setback. The Austrians are only now entering the competition. Pafos had to play a round earlier and came back from a 0–2 deficit in the first leg against Hajduk Split to win 4–2 in extra time.
When it comes to the Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos match, home-field advantage and greater international experience favor the hosts. That’s likely why the highest odds for a home win are only 1.63, available at Bet-at-home. However, the Cypriot side has proven time and again that it can hold its own on the European stage.
For our analysis, it’s also worth taking a look at last season’s records. Salzburg won only nine of 24 home games. That’s obviously not enough for a top Austrian club. With a goal difference of 84–65 over 49 matches, Danny Röhl’s team demonstrated its offensive potential but remained vulnerable defensively. With the departures of the two talented center backs, Gadou and Schuster, new solutions are needed. Pafos, however, also won only 13 of its 28 away games and wasn’t particularly successful on the road. The visitors scored 98 goals in 56 competitive matches but also conceded 60. For both teams, the greater strength clearly lies in their attacking play, while their weakness tends to be on the defensive end. The Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos prediction therefore points toward a high-scoring match.
When it comes to the Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos odds, recent results initially favor the home team. The Austrian side opened its season with a 7-1 victory in the ÖFB Cup against the amateur club FC Oberwart and then won its Bundesliga opener against Hartberg 1-0. In both matches, Röhl’s team created numerous clear-cut chances. However, these results are not yet a reliable indicator for the upcoming match, as FCP is considered significantly stronger on an individual level than the last two opponents.
The Cypriots have so far played only their European Cup match against Hajduk. A 0–2 loss in the first leg was followed by a 4–2 victory in extra time. But here, too, we must mention that the Red Bulls are, of course, in a different league than the Croatian team.
Red Bull Salzburg – Pafos Head-to-Head Record
No official competitive match has yet taken place between these clubs. When assessing the Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos betting odds, the teams’ differing international backgrounds therefore provide the best rough guide. Pafos has only been among the top teams in its national league for a few years and was still playing in the second Cypriot division as recently as 2017. In the 2024–25 season, however, the club reached the Round of 16 in the Conference League.
A year later, the team earned nine points from eight matches in the Champions League group stage and, finishing 26th, narrowly missed advancing to the next round. Salzburg, however, has significantly more European competition experience, though it has been waiting for a domestic league title since the 2022/23 season. The former gap between the two clubs has therefore narrowed at least somewhat.
Red Bull Salzburg – Pafos Prediction
Our Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos betting tip is “Both Teams to Score.” The hosts have enough pace and quality on the ball to keep a defense busy that conceded an average of more than one goal per competitive match last season. Their strong start to the season also bolsters confidence in Salzburg’s offense. At the same time, the Austrian side shouldn’t measure their opponent against teams like Oberwart or Hartberg.
Pafos prevailed against Hajduk—a team of comparable quality—and brings important experience from its recent run in UEFA competitions. The personnel changes in the heart of Salzburg’s defense also increase the chances of scoring opportunities for the visitors. Goals from both sides are therefore quite likely.
“Over 2.5 goals” is a good alternative bet. Both teams have a tremendous amount to offer offensively, but defensively, they are not impregnable. Last season, Salzburg averaged well over one goal per competitive match but also conceded goals on a regular basis. Pafos has a similar profile: its attack generates many shots and goals, while its back line frequently allows opponents opportunities.
Home-field advantage forces Röhl’s team to secure a strong position heading into the second leg. After their comeback in the previous round, the visitors are also unlikely to focus solely on defense. If an early goal is scored, the match could quickly open up. The Red Bull Salzburg vs. Pafos odds for a game with at least three goals are therefore an interesting alternative.
