How close is Alcaraz to his peak performance?
Given the balance of power, my Wu vs. Alcaraz prediction initially favors the Spaniard—which is hardly surprising—but Yibing Wu is currently playing the best Grand Slam tournament of his career. The 27-year-old Chinese player has reached the third round of a major for only the second time in his career and now even gets to face one of today’s biggest stars on Center Court.
However, Wu is no stranger to such a stage, as just a few weeks ago at Wimbledon, he had the pleasure of facing Novak Djokovic in the first round. He even took a set off the Serbian legend. In the Alcaraz vs. Wu matchup, however, my prediction clearly favors a straight-sets victory for the defending champion, especially since the Spaniard is in a completely different league when it comes to individual skill.
As expected, the Wu vs. Alcaraz odds also heavily favor the Spaniard. With another victory at Flushing Meadows, he would also celebrate three Grand Slam titles for the first time, following his wins in 2022 and 2025.
After a surprisingly weak first set against Jaime Faria—which the Portuguese player actually won—Alcaraz then turned it on in a big way in the second round, dropping just five games in the following three sets combined. Although the 22-year-old may not yet be playing at his absolute peak after a four-month break from competition, his 24-4 record so far this year speaks for itself. On hard courts this season, Alcaraz has also won 19 of his 21 singles matches. The superstar is getting better with every match.
As for Wu, it’s still worth taking a closer look at his tournament run so far, as his strong performance in New York has come as quite a surprise. The Chinese player reached a career-high ranking of No. 54 (May 2023), but currently sits at No. 113 in the world rankings and was anything but in top form immediately before the U.S. Open.
In Cincinnati, he was knocked out in straight sets during the qualifying rounds by none other than Jaime Faria, while at the warm-up tournament in Winston-Salem, his run ended in the first round against Comesana, also by a score of 0-2.
This makes it all the more surprising that, in his first two rounds so far against Adam Walton and James Duckworth, Wu hasn’t dropped a single set or even lost a single service game. Against Alcaraz, however, he now faces a player of a completely different caliber, and I believe Wu’s resistance will be broken much more quickly this time. Standing 1.80 meters tall, with an average first-serve speed of around 180 km/h and a lack of power on his winning shots, Wu is also not a classic serve-and-volley player, meaning he’ll clearly come up short against Alcaraz, especially in baseline rallies.
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Record
The only previous match between Wu and Alcaraz took place in Shanghai in October 2024, though the Chinese player at least had home-court advantage on his side at the time. On the indoor hard court, Alcaraz struggled in the first set and only prevailed in a tiebreak before confidently winning the second set 6-3. The Spaniard didn’t have to fend off a single break point throughout the match. For Friday, however, I wouldn’t necessarily bet on a tiebreak. In particular, the odds of up to 2.20 offer good value in my opinion.
Yibing Wu vs. Carlos Alcaraz Pick
Despite Alcaraz’s long forced break, the situation is pretty clear: As the world No. 3, the Spaniard is the clear favorite, especially since Yibing Wu is ranked only 113th. However, the Chinese player has proven with two convincing performances against Walton and Duckworth that he fully deserved to reach the third round. Alcaraz, on the other hand, has gained more confidence with each match following his roughly four-month break and, especially against Jaime Faria, impressively demonstrated the level he’s already capable of reaching again.
My Alcaraz vs. Wu prediction is therefore a straight 3-0 victory for the Spaniard at odds of 1.90. I’m willing to stake four units on this bet. The last three sets against the Portuguese player, in particular, were a demonstration of just how quickly Carlitos has regained his dominant form after his long break. As the defending champion, he brings not only a wealth of experience but also the added incentive to secure the third US Open title of his career. Facing him is Wu, a player who has reached the third round of a Grand Slam for only the second time ever. For me, there’s a strong case that Alcaraz will continue his upward trajectory and clear the next hurdle in New York without dropping a set.
