Are the Rojiblancos title contenders?
Diego Simeone will go down in the Rojiblancos’ history books as the most successful coach in the club’s 113-year history. We have no doubt about that in our Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid tip, just as we have no doubt that the visitors are the favorites.
We’re getting support from the bookmakers for our Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid prediction. The implied probability of a win for the visitors is approximately 57.8 percent.
Currently, the Colchoneros sit in second place in the standings (19 points from 8 La Liga matches). This makes Simeone’s squad the closest challenger to FC Barcelona. Form plays a certain role in selecting the right Espanyol Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid betting odds.
Atleti has been in brilliant form for the past month, racking up five consecutive competitive wins during this period. Midweek, the Rojiblancos earned a 2-0 home victory against Manchester United. This means Simeone’s team has won three of its last five games without conceding a goal.
In the nearly 15 years under Diego Simeone, it has almost become a rule that Atleti boasts one of the best defenses in Spain’s top flight. So far, the visitors are living up to this rule. No other team in La Liga has allowed fewer goals from open play (3).
Added to this are some more in-depth statistics, such as the fourth-best expected goals against (8.38 xGA). Espanyol has also been impressive defensively (10.41 xGA – 7th in the league), making our decision easier.
Espanyol Barcelona – Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head Record
It may sound surprising to some, but the Colchoneros have often struggled against Espanyol in recent years. It wasn’t until the La Liga return leg of the previous season that Atleti ended a streak of four consecutive winless head-to-head matches with a 4-2 victory.
We expect a lower-scoring matchup this coming weekend at the RCDE Stadium. The Pericos have conceded no more than one goal in 50 percent of their La Liga matches this season. The rate is even higher for Simeone’s squad (75 percent with fewer than 1.5 goals conceded).
Espanyol Barcelona – Atlético Madrid Prediction
Only six teams in Spain’s top flight generate a lower expected goals (xG) per shot than the second-place team (0.10 xG/shot). Espanyol falls into this category with 0.09 xG/shot. The home team has posed virtually no threat from set pieces so far this season.
With the exception of Celta Vigo (15), no La Liga team has taken fewer shots from set pieces than the Blue-and-Whites (18). The hosts are likely to struggle to break through the Colchoneros’ compact and disciplined defense.
At the same time, Espanyol Barcelona allows other teams in Spain’s top flight very little space to operate freely. Their defense tends to position itself in a deep block.
Only Valencia (37.4 m) and Getafe (38.8 m) start their defensive actions deeper on average. We expect a match in which Atleti will have to show patience—unlike in their 2-0 win earlier this week. In that game, the Rojiblancos took the lead less than a minute into the match.
