Will Barcola lead the Reds to another victory?
In our Liverpool vs. Villarreal preview, we look at a matchup in which the Reds enter the Champions League as clear favorites despite inconsistent domestic form. In the Premier League, Liverpool has so far fallen short of its own expectations. Despite a 2-1 win at Brentford over the weekend, the team—currently fifth in the Premier League standings—is already nine points behind league-leading Manchester City. Things are going better in the Champions League, where coach Andoni Iraola’s team has six points after two matchdays. Only defending champion Paris Saint-Germain has scored more goals so far—ten—than LFC’s nine—and on Tuesday, the team is looking to secure its third win!
Nevertheless, odds of 1.50 offered on a Liverpool vs. Villarreal bet for a home win underscore that the visitors from Spain should not be underestimated. The Yellow Submarine narrowly lost their Champions League opener at Borussia Dortmund 2–3 and followed that up with a 3–1 victory over Napoli.
In their domestic league, however, Villarreal sits in only twelfth place, and the team has failed to score in its last two consecutive La Liga matches. It would therefore be quite surprising if coach Iñigo Pérez’s team were to end its current losing streak in European away games in the cauldron at Anfield Road of all places.
Anyone taking a closer look at the Liverpool vs. Villarreal odds should pay special attention not only to the home win but also to the goal markets. After all, Liverpool has scored at least twice in 13 of their last 15 Champions League group stage or knockout round matches at home, while none of the past 83 LFC matches in the group stage or knockout rounds of this competition have ended scoreless.
It can also be interesting to look at potential goal scorers. Bradley Barcola, in particular, is once again a candidate to be the game-changer after his hat trick against LASK a week ago.
Liverpool vs. Villarreal AI Prediction
The AI prediction sees Liverpool with a clear advantage in their matchup against Villarreal, putting the Reds’ probability of victory at 65.9%, while the visitors’ stands at 15.6%. The expected goals (xG) figures also speak volumes in favor of the English side, with 2.17 to 0.91, and a total of 3.08 goals are projected.
The model thus assigns a 52% probability to “Over 2.5 Goals,” while both teams have a 55.3% chance of scoring at least one goal each. Overall, the AI supports Liverpool’s status as the favorite but also anticipates a possible goal from the Yellow Submarine. Ultimately, however, it is the Liverpool vs. Villarreal AI prediction of “Under 3.25 Goals” that best reflects the balance between AI expectations and actual odds.
Liverpool – Statistics & Current Form
Liverpool has suffered only one loss in ten competitive matches this season, when Manchester City triumphed 3–0 at Anfield Road. The Reds have even won six of their last eight matches, so their overall form is quite positive. Nevertheless, the mood along the Mersey is mixed, as Liverpool currently sits in fifth place in the Premier League and is already nine points behind league-leading Manchester City. For the Liverpool vs. Villarreal betting odds, however, the English side’s strength in international home matches remains a key factor.
Liverpool is counting on its home form and Bradley Barcola
When it comes to the Champions League, the numbers speak for Andoni Iraola’s team. Liverpool has won 19 of its last 22 matches in the group stage or league phase, plus 15 of its last 16 home games in this competition. However, the defense is clearly an area of concern right now, as the Reds have conceded a total of seven goals in their last three matches—including during last week’s spectacular 6-3 victory at LASK.
In terms of personnel, Iraola will be without Dominik Szoboszlai and Jeremie Frimpong, among others, who had to be substituted during the 2-1 win over Brentford this past weekend. Despite Liverpool’s strong home record, the outlook for the match against Villarreal doesn’t necessarily point to a comfortable, clean-sheet victory. Instead, there are attractive odds for a favorite win with both teams scoring!
Another exciting bet is on Bradley Barcola to score; he netted his first goal for Liverpool in the 6-3 win in Austria and then followed it up with two more goals. With odds of 2.50 on the Betano app, another goal from the forward is definitely an interesting option for anyone looking to bet specifically on a goal scorer.
Villarreal – Statistics & Current Form
New manager Iñigo Pérez has been on the sidelines at Villarreal since the summer, but the start of their partnership was anything but smooth. In their first six competitive matches, the Yellow Submarine failed to secure a win and even suffered four losses. At least a slight upward trend is now emerging. They’ve won three of their last five matches, along with one draw and one loss. The 3-1 victory over Napoli in the Champions League was a particularly important milestone, as it ended Villarreal’s streak of seven consecutive Champions League losses.
Villarreal Faces Another Potential Setback
There isn’t much cause for euphoria, however, as the win against a Napoli side currently struggling with form was followed by a disappointing scoreless draw at home against Elche. With nine points from nine league games, Villarreal currently sits in twelfth place in La Liga—far below their own expectations. The defense is also a cause for concern. Across all competitions, the team has already conceded 16 goals in 11 matches and kept a clean sheet only once. Against Liverpool’s offensive firepower, this vulnerability could prove to be a decisive problem.
In particular, the team’s dismal away record in the Champions League speaks against the Spaniards, as Villarreal has lost all of its last six away games in the competition.
Now they face Liverpool, an opponent that—despite its own inconsistencies—is among the most dangerous teams in Europe, especially on home turf. While the victory over Napoli showed that the Yellow Submarine is certainly capable of springing surprises on offense, their recent performances and poor international away record leave little room for optimism. I therefore don’t expect Villarreal to pull off an upset at Anfield and consider their underdog status to be entirely justified.
Liverpool – Villarreal Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head record so far clearly favors the English side. In four competitive matches between Liverpool and Villarreal, LFC has recorded three wins, while the Yellow Submarine has come out on top only once.
Fans are likely to still vividly remember the 2022 Champions League semifinal, when Liverpool first won 2–0 at home and then prevailed 3–2 in the second leg in Spain despite facing difficulties along the way. Furthermore, the Reds are coming into this match on a five-game winning streak in the Champions League against Spanish clubs. Villarreal, on the other hand, is still waiting for its first win in 16 Champions League matches against Premier League teams. With six draws and ten losses, this record underscores why the Liverpool vs. Villarreal odds have the hosts as clear favorites.
Liverpool – Villarreal Prediction
Despite some defensive weaknesses, Liverpool enters the Champions League clash with Villarreal as the clear favorite. While the Reds have won six of their last eight competitive matches and 19 of their past 22 games in the group stage or knockout rounds of the Champions League, the Yellow Submarine has gone six away games without a win in this competition. Since Villarreal has also failed to keep a clean sheet in just one of its last eleven competitive matches, I expect an attack-oriented evening in which Liverpool should assert its individual class.
My personal Liverpool vs. Villarreal prediction, however, centers on Bradley Barcola as the goal scorer. The forward had a dream night last week in the 6-3 win over LASK, scoring three goals. Given that strong performance and the projected LFC goals on Tuesday night, the 2.50 odds at Betano for another goal are definitely worth considering. I’m betting three units on it.
