Will the Swiss Champions League dream end in the first leg?

A good two decades after its only UEFA Champions League appearance to date (2005–06), FC Thun is back on the big European stage. In the Bernese Oberland, fans are dreaming of adding the next fairy-tale chapter to their own Cinderella story, which began with last year’s sensational Super League title win.

However, ahead of Thun’s match against Dinamo Zagreb, it’s safe to predict that the surprise Swiss champions were unlucky rather than lucky in the draw, as they’ll face the Croatian serial champions—one of the most experienced and consistent teams at this stage of the international competition.—

In the matchup between Thun and Dinamo Zagreb, the odds on the Croatian powerhouse advancing are already significantly lower even before the first leg, which clearly underscores the imbalance in the matchup. Nevertheless, Thun impressively proved last season that the team can consistently rise to the occasion. That’s exactly what the fans are hoping for on Tuesday evening at the Stockhorn Arena, which, as is well known, is equipped with an artificial turf surface—something rather unusual at the professional level.

Although the atypical playing surface could work in favor of the home team from the garrison town, it’s crucial to note that the visitors possess greater individual quality and must battle their way through various qualifying rounds in European competition year after year. As a regular contender in the Europa League or even the Champions League, the “Modri’s” status as favorites—based on the Thun vs. Dinamo Zagreb odds—is therefore entirely understandable.

I, too, am therefore opting to bet on Dinamo Zagreb with an Asian handicap of -0.25, because FC Thun has lost a significant amount of depth compared to its championship season. With Mauro Lustrinelli, the surprise champion not only lost the architect of its title win to Union Berlin but must also cope with the departure of several key players. The departing players Leonardo Bertone, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, and Elmin Rastoder alone contributed an impressive 46 scoring points combined during the 2025–26 Super League season.

On top of that, the Bernese Oberland team’s long-standing momentum completely fizzled out toward the end of the season. They lost six of their last eight league games, showing the first signs of a decline in form. Their preseason performance has also offered little hope for a quick turnaround so far. Their 1-2 loss to German third-division side Waldhof Mannheim was followed only by a 1-1 draw against Bundesliga newcomer Elversberg. Dinamo Zagreb, meanwhile, remains undefeated this summer.

Thun – Dinamo Zagreb Head-to-Head Record

There has never been a direct matchup between Thun and Dinamo Zagreb on the international stage.

Encounters with clubs from each other’s neighboring countries are also rare: Thun has never faced a Croatian club in a UEFA competition, while Dinamo Zagreb has only occasionally faced Swiss teams.

Nevertheless, the Croatians bring a huge advantage in experience; after all, Champions League qualifying rounds have been a regular part of the serial champions’ schedule for years. Thun, on the other hand, can look back on the legendary 2005 Champions League fairy tale—including their successful qualifying match against Dynamo Kyiv—but overall, the team from the Bernese Oberland lacks international experience at this level.

Thun vs. Dinamo Zagreb Prediction

It’s no surprise that Dinamo Zagreb is traveling to the Bernese Oberland as the favorite. While FC Thun earned its return to the big European stage with its sensational league title, the roster has changed significantly since then. The championship-winning coach has left, and key players have also departed the club. The start of preseason under successor Gian-Luca Privitelli also went awry, with a 1-2 loss to Mannheim and a 1-1 draw against Bundesliga newcomer Elversberg.

In contrast, they face an opponent with vast international experience that has been a regular in UEFA qualifiers for years. It’s therefore understandable that they’re the favorites on the betting market. Odds of 2.45 for a win at Winamax correspond to an implied probability of around 41 percent and underscore that the Croatians hold the better hand despite playing on the road.

However, since the artificial turf at the Stockhorn Arena shouldn’t be completely overlooked, I’m opting for Dinamo Zagreb (-0.25 AHC) over Thun, which further reduces the risk slightly. The roster shake-up at the Swiss surprise champions, their poor form at the end of last season, and their rocky start to preseason all point, in my view, in favor of the visitors, who also have more quality and international experience. My fictional stake is five units at attractive odds of 1.73.