Will the Bills Send New England into a Slump?

The “Super Bowl Hangover” Patriots are traveling to Buffalo for our Bills vs. Patriots pick in an effort to salvage their season. Statistically speaking, a 1-3 start would leave them with only a 14.2% chance of making the playoffs. In fact, over the past eleven years, only 12.5% of teams with such a start have managed to make it.

Meanwhile, only the Bills remain in the mix, and the Pats have slipped to 14th place. So they absolutely cannot afford another loss.

These are the circumstances leading up to the game, which adds a certain level of excitement. We can well imagine that we’ll see the Pats back in good form this weekend—but whether that will be enough against Josh Allen and company remains to be seen.

This already crucial AFC East showdown kicks off on Sunday at 7:00 p.m. in Buffalo. The game will be broadcast live on Sky Sport 1 as a single game, as well as on the conference channel and on Wow.

The Bills are considered the clear favorites by the bookmakers, with a spread of -6.5 to -7.5 points. Yes, the Pats have gotten off to a weak start to the season, but the Bills haven’t beaten New England by such a wide margin in more than six head-to-head matchups, which makes the handicap bets on the Pats worth considering. The betting odds for Bills vs. Patriots are also surprisingly high.

Buffalo Bills – New England Patriots Head-to-Head Record

While Buffalo has won three of the last five head-to-head matchups, the Pats won the most recent meeting at Highmark Stadium 23–20. Their defense will have to step up again on Sunday, which isn’t out of the question, as it has often performed very strongly against Josh Allen.

In Buffalo, the Bills haven’t scored more than 27 points in their last three home games, which at least leaves the door open for New England to make it a close game. So, for Bills vs. Pats, the under odds are also a solid bet—despite the Bills’ offensive firepower so far this season.

Buffalo Bills – New England Pick

For the Patriots, almost everything is on the line, as a 1-3 start—especially in the AFC—makes it nearly impossible to salvage the season. Their defense will play accordingly aggressively, making an under likely. However, this repeatedly creates scrambling opportunities for Josh Allen with his running game.

So, for the Bills vs. the Pats, a bet on Josh Allen scoring a rushing touchdown is one of our top picks. He’s already racked up six rushing touchdowns in just three games this season. The odds of up to 1.83 are still incredibly good for this.

In addition to picks on Allen, we have another player bet in mind: TD picks on Rhamondre Stevenson. We also consider a rushing touchdown by the Patriots very likely, except that Stevenson often gets the ball before the end zone—significantly more often than Henderson.