A Close Top-Tier Matchup Between Teams in Inconsistent Form?
It’s Thursday Night Football in the NFL, and our Bears vs. Patriots pick features a true top-tier matchup. While both teams “only” have a 4-2 record, the Patriots were without A.J. Brown for four games, and the Bears were without Caleb Williams for three, which goes some way toward explaining their losses so far.
Nevertheless, both teams haven’t been quite as consistent as expected so far, which has also caused them to slip to 8th (Bears) and 13th (Patriots) in the 2027 Super Bowl odds. However, the winner of Thursday’s game is likely to move up a few spots in those rankings as well.
But who will come out on top on this cold Thursday evening in Chicago? Home-field advantage favors the Bears, while recent history favors the Pats, promising a close matchup. Nevertheless, for Bears vs. Pats, our prediction is ultimately a narrow home win for Ben Johnson’s team—we simply view him as the slightly better head coach.
Another very interesting betting option arises from the total points odds. Both teams allow an average of under 20 points (Bears 19.8, Patriots 18.8). Nevertheless, the over/under is set at a high 50.5, which makes the under bet significantly more attractive for us in the Bears vs. Patriots matchup.
Chicago Bears – New England Patriots Head-to-Head Record
Six of the last seven matchups went to the Patriots, though the relevance of this statistic is somewhat questionable. That’s because in five of those matchups, Tom Brady was still the Pats’ quarterback, whereas the Bears fielded quarterbacks like Jim Miller, Jay Cutler, or Mitch Trubisky.
The most recent matchup, however, was between Maye and Williams and also ended in a decisive 19–3 victory for New England. That said, Maye’s rookie season was also significantly better than Williams’s, who didn’t really improve until the following years.
Another notable point is the low total score back then, which again points us toward the under—a bet we’re already considering based on the season’s stats so far. Thus, for Chicago vs. New England, the odds on the under 50.5 total points are an excellent bet.
Chicago Bears – New England Pick
The Bears are considered slight favorites, and we agree with that assessment. Especially since Caleb Williams should now be back at 100% following his injury layoff. We haven’t seen that level of consistency yet from A.J. Brown, who still looked noticeably off his game.
Another reason to favor a Chicago -3.5 bet in the Bears vs. Pats matchup. As mentioned earlier, however, the under (under 50.5) is also a strong contender in our betting recommendations.
For player bets, we’ve got our eyes on D’Andre Swift of the Bears. He’s already scored six rushing touchdowns in six games and, given the Bears’ run-heavy offense, is a clear candidate for a TD bet on Swift this Thursday as well.
