Will Mahomes make a successful NFL comeback?

Patrick Mahomes is back—after tearing his ACL in 2025, he’ll be back on the field Monday night in our Chiefs vs. Broncos preview. But is he back to 100% yet? That remains to be seen, though we see the Broncos as having a slight edge here, especially since they’ve had the Chiefs’ number in recent years.

The AFC West champion once again has a good chance this season to make a deep playoff run. That said, the Chargers (17.0) are also near the top of that list this season—in part, or perhaps mainly, because of their new offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel.

But back to our classic showdown at Arrowhead Stadium, where the Broncos won 20–13 last season. Mahomes was already out at the time, though. Even with Mahomes, the Chiefs often struggled against this Broncos defense. The Chiefs averaged just 11.4 points over their last five matchups.

So, for the start of the 2026 NFL season, we’re expecting another close, low-scoring matchup, which makes it difficult to predict the outcome of Chiefs vs. Broncos. We’re anticipating few points, one or two decisive big plays, and a Chiefs running game that—contrary to all expectations—isn’t yet as dominant as many expect it to be thanks to new running back Kenneth Walker.

This AFC showdown kicks off at 2:15 a.m. on Tuesday in Kansas City. The game will be broadcast live on Sky, which secured the NFL broadcast rights for the new season.

The Chiefs are considered slight favorites in this matchup, although we still don’t know how close to 100% Patrick Mahomes is yet. Since we see the Broncos as a much more cohesive team, there are several betting options worth considering for the Chiefs vs. Broncos game that favor the road team, including touchdown picks on their new No. 1 receiver, Jaylen Waddle.

Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos Head-to-Head Record

The Chiefs have struggled against the Broncos recently. Denver has won four of the last five matchups, and even the Chiefs’ lone victory in 2024 came by a margin of just two points and was extremely lucky. In that game, the Chiefs’ defense blocked a last-second field goal attempt by the Broncos to secure the win.

The Chiefs have such a poor record against few other teams, and that’s naturally on the minds of Mahomes, Kelce, and the rest of the team. Additionally, Kenneth Walker, as the Chiefs’ new running back, first has to prove himself in an offense that traditionally doesn’t run the ball very often. It could take a few game weeks before things are literally running smoothly.

Kansas City Chiefs – Denver Broncos Pick

As always, the Chiefs are unpredictable heading into a season—even more so this year due to Mahomes’ recent injury. In contrast, the Broncos offer consistency, with hardly anything having changed on their side. Team chemistry is especially important on opening day, which works in Denver’s favor.

So, for the Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup, our pick is Denver +2.5 at odds that remain very attractive. After all, this bet would still pay off even if the Chiefs manage to scrape out another win—as they did so frequently two years ago, relying on their experience and individual talent.

We still need a player bet, where we’re going with a new Broncos player. They’ve brought Waddle on board—one of the best available wide receivers—and he could make an immediate impact against the inexperienced Chiefs’ secondary with a touchdown. A TD bet on Waddle is therefore at the top of our list.