Will the Colchoneros hold onto second place?
If the Alavés vs. Atlético Madrid prediction of an away win for the Rojiblancos comes true, Diego Simeone’s team would remain in second place in the standings and position themselves as the closest challenger to league leaders FC Barcelona. The Colchoneros, who went into the international break with a bang, have worked hard to earn that position. In their most recent competitive match, they secured a 2-1 home victory over Real Madrid in the Madrid derby—a result they now need to build on.
However, the Alavés vs. Atlético Madrid prediction must also take into account that the Babazorros currently sit in sixth place. After the Basques got off to a dream start to the season with ten out of a possible twelve points, they managed to add just a single point over the following three matchdays. The international break thus came at exactly the right time for them to regroup.
Given that Deportivo Alavés hasn’t lost any of its last four home games against the Rojiblancos, it makes perfect sense to hedge against the possibility of a draw. Since we don’t expect a goal fest at Mendizorroza, we therefore recommend the combined bet on the Double Chance X2 with under 3.5 goals.
Alternatively, a bet on under 2.5 goals would also make sense. In Alavés’ last four home games against Atlético Madrid, there have always been a maximum of two goals scored. The Babazorros won twice without conceding a goal, followed by a 0–0 draw in the 2024–25 season and a 1–1 draw in their most recent home game of the 2025–26 season. Another factor supporting the under bet is that this is ultimately a typical Atlético match, in which Simeone’s team will try to play patiently and maintain defensive stability while eventually capitalizing on their individual quality.
Alavés – Atlético Madrid Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 9 – 7 – 19
The two teams have faced each other 35 times so far, and with 19 wins, Atlético Madrid holds the edge in the head-to-head record. The Rojiblancos are currently unbeaten in their last four matches against Deportivo Alavés (two wins, two draws).
However, the Babazorros haven’t lost any of their last four La Liga home games against the Colchoneros since 2021 (two wins, two draws).
Last season, too, the Madrid side could not manage more than a 1-1 draw at Mendizorroza.
Alavés – Atlético Madrid Prediction
After their 2-1 victory over Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid has naturally gotten a taste for victory. The Colchoneros would love nothing more than to get back in the title race, and with a five-point deficit behind the previously undefeated league-leading Barcelona, they certainly can’t afford to drop any points against a team like Deportivo Alavés. But the hosts know this too, and they’ll likely do everything in their power to keep the match open for as long as possible.
In particular, players like Jonathan David—who became only the seventh player in the club’s 123-year history to score in his first three league games for the Rojiblancos—could very well decide the match with his individual brilliance.
Since the Colchoneros have struggled on the road at Mendizorroza recently—failing to win any of their last four away games there (two draws, two losses)—we’d at least like to cover a draw with our pick. The Match Combo of Double Chance X2 with under 3.5 goals is a logical choice.
