Can the Veltri avoid a rough start?
Domenico Tedesco certainly imagined his first competitive match as Bologna’s coach would go differently. Despite 59 percent possession and an expected goals (xG) of 1.78 (compared to the visitors’ 0.63), they suffered a 0–1 home loss to Lazio Rome. If the prediction of a loss for the Veltri (meaning “the Greyhounds”) against Atalanta Bergamo also comes true, the Emilian side faces the threat of a rough start to the season.
Meanwhile, La Dea celebrated a 2-1 home win against Sassuolo and, following a lackluster 0-0 draw in the first leg, secured their spot in the group stage of the UEFA Conference League with a 1-0 victory at Hapoel Tel Aviv earlier this week. The Nerazzurri thus remain undefeated in all three competitive matches of the still-young 2026–27 season (two wins, one draw).
Particularly impressive: Maurizio Sarri has significantly stabilized the Bergamo side’s defense. In three matches, they’ve conceded just one goal—though they’ve also scored “only” three goals in total. We therefore wouldn’t expect a goal fest in Lombardy, even though the two teams aren’t exactly on good terms right now.
After all, La Dea is courting Bologna forward Jonathan Rowe, a move that the Veltri’s management has rejected—despite a reported 40-million offer—partly due to the painful departures of Santiago Castro (to Roma) and Jhon Lucumí (to Juventus). However, if our prediction of a home win for Atalanta Bergamo against Bologna comes true, it could cause additional unrest.
For those who find our pick for a Nerazzurri home win too risky—since, let’s not forget, they’ve lost four of their last five home games against Bologna FC (with just one win)—you can alternatively take a completely neutral approach and bet on under goals.
Atalanta Bergamo – Bologna Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 47 – 35 – 48
A total of 130 matches have already taken place between the two clubs, and the record could hardly be more evenly matched. The Nerazzurri’s 47 wins—including two of their last three matches against Bologna FC (with one loss)—are offset by 48 wins for the Veltri. However, in Bergamo, La Dea has lost four of its last five home games against the Emilian side (with one win).
Atalanta Bergamo – Bologna Prediction
Under Maurizio Sarri, Atalanta Bergamo has shown solid team cohesion in the first three competitive matches of the 2026/27 season and, as is usually the case with Sarri’s teams, has shone—especially on defense. They have conceded just a single goal so far.
Meanwhile, Bologna FC lost 0–1 to Lazio Rome in Tedesco’s home debut in Emilia-Romagna, even though the Veltri posted an xG of 1.78 and were superior in virtually all relevant performance metrics. However, the fact that all three major scoring chances went unused also highlights just how significant the summer departures have been. This makes the Rossoblù cling all the more tightly to Jonathan Rowe, for whom—of all teams—the Bergamo side are reportedly said to have made an offer of 40 million euros.
We can very well imagine that La Dea will also shut down the Rossoblù’s offense. There’s also a strong case to be made that the Nerazzurri will secure the home win and keep all three points in Lombardy.
