Will it be another close call for the Catalans?
Girona FC barely avoided relegation last summer, finishing 16th in the final standings, but spent most of the 2025/26 season without relegation worries. For long stretches, the Catalans were closer to European qualification spots than to the relegation zone. After six consecutive league games without a win (three draws, three losses), however, their lead over 18th place has shrunk to just one point.
Should the prediction of a home win for the strong-at-home Colchoneros come true in the Atletico Madrid vs. Girona match, the Blanquivermells—who at least have the slight advantage of facing a direct rival, Elche, on the final matchday—would likely have to sweat it out once again.
Nevertheless, Girona FC would love nothing more than to secure the planning certainty of another year in the top flight of Spanish soccer with an away win at the Metropolitano, even ahead of a potential final showdown. A positive for the Catalans is that the Rojiblancos have nothing left to play for. Simeone’s side has already secured a spot in the Champions League but has no realistic chance of winning any other titles. After losing the Copa del Rey final and being eliminated in the Champions League semifinals, the momentum has also faded somewhat.
And yet: The recent 0-1 home loss to Celta Vigo is weighing on the Madrid side, who will now officially bid farewell to Antoine Griezmann, among others. While we don’t expect a goal fest, we also don’t believe that Atlético will lose another home game. Consequently, the match combo of Double Chance 1X with under 3.5 goals offers us good value.
Basically, considering that the Colchoneros have won 14 of their 18 La Liga home games in the 2025/26 season (one draw, three losses), while the visitors from Catalonia have managed just three wins in 18 away matches (eight draws, seven losses), a direct bet on a home win for the Madrid side is also a viable option.
On the other hand, those who don’t want to rule anything out—given that the Blanquivermells still have something to play for—can take the neutral bet on under 2.5 goals at Bet-at-home at odds of 2.15.
Atletico Madrid – Girona Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 7 – 5 – 1
The two teams have faced each other in competitive matches only 13 times, and Girona FC has managed to beat the capital club just once so far.
Most recently, Atlético Madrid has beaten the Catalans four times in a row and also celebrated a resounding 3-0 away win against the Blanquivermells in the first leg. The Colchoneros also secured a 3-0 victory in their most recent home match.
Atletico Madrid – Girona Prediction
One of La Liga’s strongest home teams hosts a club that has gone six league games without a win (three draws, three losses) and, given this slump, is once again facing unexpected relegation worries.
Given this situation, our prediction for Atletico Madrid vs. Girona is essentially a home win for the Colchoneros, who, however, go into the match without any pressure. Fatigue from the numerous midweek fixtures was also evident in Diego Simeone’s club just recently in their home match against Celta Vigo (0-1), although they did secure a 2-1 away win at Osasuna on Tuesday night.
Even a draw would be worth its weight in gold for the visitors from Catalonia, which is why we wouldn’t categorically rule out this result. It’s likely that the Blanquivermells will play very defensively and disruptively at the Metropolitano, making a low-scoring match probable. The combined bet on Double Chance 1X with under 3.5 goals covers most scenarios.
