Will Carrick’s team pull off a breakthrough victory in Madrid?
The Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United preview begins with two teams whose current form couldn’t be more different. While Atlético Madrid has really picked up steam with four straight wins in La Liga and has established itself as FC Barcelona’s closest challenger, Manchester United is in the midst of a serious slump. The Red Devils haven’t won in four competitive matches and have won only one of their last six games across all competitions. For Michael Carrick, the challenging trip to the Metropolitano therefore comes at an inopportune time, while Diego Simeone can hope for another victory from his players.
When it comes to the Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United matchup, however, it’s also worth taking a look at their contrasting starts to the Champions League group stage. Manchester United crushed Azerbaijani underdog Sabah 4–0, while Atlético fell 1–2 to Liverpool FC despite a spirited performance.
With upcoming matches against VfB Stuttgart and Bayern Munich on the horizon, Simeone’s team is already under pressure, so another loss must be avoided at all costs. The hosts are likely to come out focused and try to carry their recent run of domestic success over into the Champions League.
Ahead of the high-profile clash between Atlético Madrid and Manchester United, the odds on the 1X2 market favor the Spaniards—and there are good reasons for that. Atlético has won nine of its last eleven Champions League home games in the league or group stages and, furthermore, has lost only two of its past 19 home games in this competition against English clubs.
Added to this is the visitors’ poor form, with several players sidelined or at least questionable. I can therefore easily see a home win; as a slightly more defensive alternative, a combination of an Atlético win or a draw (DC 1X) and a certain number of goals makes sense, especially since Atlético has kept a clean sheet in only one of its last 17 Champions League matches.
Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United AI Prediction
The Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United AI prediction foresees a close match, with Atlético holding a slight advantage with an expected xG of 1.70 compared to 1.35 for Manchester United. According to the AI, Atlético’s probability of winning is 45.7%, which is significantly below the average of at least 50% that the most popular bookmakers assign to a home win.
Based on the AI probabilities, the double chance (X2) offers fair odds of 1.84, while bookmakers are even offering odds as high as 1.91. This creates mathematical value on the side of Manchester United or a draw. The AI tip therefore does not favor the favored home win, but rather the double chance (X2).
Atlético Madrid – Statistics & Current Form
Atlético Madrid heads into the Champions League clash with Manchester United brimming with confidence: The Rojiblancos won 2–1 on the road against Deportivo Alavés over the weekend, celebrating their fourth consecutive La Liga victory. Prior to that, Diego Simeone’s team had, among other results, defeated Real Madrid 2–1 and thrashed Osasuna 4–0 at home. Following their opening-round loss to Liverpool FC, they now aim to secure their first Champions League victory at their home stadium, the Metropolitano.
The Metropolitano as a trump card – Atlético almost always scores
A scoreless 0–0 draw is virtually out of the question for Atlético in the Champions League. None of their last 39 matches in this competition have ended without a goal. Furthermore, the Madrid side has scored at least one goal in 23 of their last 25 group stage or league phase matches; in 11 of their last 12 Champions League home games during this phase, they’ve even scored before halftime. The home record also speaks in favor of Simeone’s team, which has won nine of its last eleven Champions League home games in the group or knockout stages.
The special atmosphere at the Metropolitano, where the passionate Atlético fans vociferously drive their team forward—especially on European match nights—making it correspondingly uncomfortable for visiting teams, must logically be mentioned as an additional X-factor. For the Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United prediction, I therefore see the home team as the favorites.
Manchester United – Statistics & Current Form
The current numbers clearly point to a slump in form for Manchester United: In their last six competitive matches, the Red Devils have managed just one win—a 4-0 victory over Champions League debutant Sabah.
However, this particular victory shouldn’t be overrated, as a decisive home win against an opponent that doesn’t possess the caliber of an established Champions League team isn’t convincing proof of European competitiveness. In the Premier League, they have only six points after six matchdays—the club’s worst start to a season in Premier League history.
Will the goal-scoring spree under Rui Borges continue?
The recent results are only part of the problem. While Manchester United has significantly more possession than last season, their pressing leaves much to be desired. The Red Devils allow their opponents an average of 12.1 passes before intervening with a defensive action, and with 26 high ball recoveries, they currently rank only 15th in the league.
A lack of consistency also remains an issue. Against Tottenham on Saturday night, United took the lead through Bryan Mbeumo but failed to capitalize on their numerical advantage after a red card and conceded the equalizer in stoppage time.
Another interesting factor for the Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United betting odds is that the visitors are currently struggling not only with results but also with personnel uncertainties. According to consistent pre-match reports, Benjamin Šeško is out, while Matthijs de Ligt, Manuel Ugarte, and Amad Diallo are all at least questionable.
Atlético Madrid – Manchester United Head-to-Head Record
In their last meeting, Atlético advanced in the 2022 Champions League Round of 16 after a 1-1 draw in the first leg, followed by a 1-0 away win in Manchester. Their home record against English teams is also remarkable: Atlético has lost only two of its 19 European home games against English opponents, winning nine and drawing eight.
Manchester United, however, has recently performed strongly against Spanish clubs, losing only one of its last eleven matches, while winning all three of its most recent games against Spanish opponents. During summer preseason, MUFC also defeated the Colchoneros 2-1 in a friendly match.
Atlético Madrid – Manchester United Prediction
Atlético Madrid heads into the matchup with Manchester United on a roll. The Colchoneros have won their last four league games in a row, putting on impressive performances in front of their home fans on multiple occasions. Their strong Champions League home record also speaks in favor of Diego Simeone’s team, which has won nine of its last eleven home games in the group and knockout stages. Manchester United, on the other hand, is in a slump with just one win in its last six competitive matches and travels to Madrid with several question marks hanging over the team.
My Atlético Madrid vs. Manchester United pick is therefore 1X & a goal in both halves at odds of 1.92, which I’m betting four units on. After their opening-round loss in Liverpool, Atlético must go for the win and is likely to play an attacking game in front of the electric crowd at the Metropolitano. I believe in the Colchoneros, who are incredibly strong at home during the Champions League group stage. Those looking to take more of a risk can alternatively consider an Atlético win or even the double result HT1/FT1.
