Will the defending champion celebrate its third straight win?
Cristiano Ronaldo spent Matchday 2 on the bench. In our Denmark vs. Portugal preview, however, we expect the 41-year-old to be back on the field. Whether he’ll start or come off the bench is hard to predict. One thing is certain: even without him, Denmark secured their second win in their second Nations League match against Norway (2–1).
An intriguing matchup awaits the defending champions in Copenhagen. The Danish national team bounced back from its opening loss (2–3 vs. Norway) with a 2–0 win over Wales. In our Denmark vs. Portugal prediction, we definitely think the hosts have a good chance.
The previous performances of the two opponents are comparable due to their identical schedules. Both faced Wales at home and played on the road in Norway.
So far, both offenses have been equally impressive. “Danish Dynamite” scored twice against both Norway and Wales. These figures add up to a solid total when we combine the expected goals from both matches (4.07 xG). The offensive output from the “Selecao das Quinas” was similar (4.61 xG).
The Portuguese defense, in particular, proved surprisingly vulnerable. Jorge Jesus has already had to deal with scoring chances totaling 4.48 xGA—his team can count itself lucky to have conceded only one goal. It’s less about the number of opponent shots and more about the quality of the scoring chances allowed (0.195 xGA per shot).
Denmark – Portugal Head-to-Head Record
Currently, there’s a double payout for the combination of “Both Teams to Score – Yes” and “Over 2.5 Goals.” This is a scenario we saw in the last matchup between these two national teams. Likewise, “Denmark Over 1.5 Goals” would have been a winning bet.
However, the victory back then went to Portugal, who went on to win the Nations League (5–2). The overall record currently favors the visitors. Portugal has won twelve of the 18 previous meetings but lost their last away match against the Danes.
Denmark – Portugal Prediction
Both teams allowed an average of 11.5 opponent shots over the first two matchdays. The quality of the opponent’s scoring chances was particularly critical, especially for the Selecao das Quinas (0.195 xGA/shot). Denmark has enough quality on the field to exploit such gaps.
In addition, “Danish Dynamite” generated 33.5 positional attacks per game—even more than Portugal (25.5).
The defending champions, on the other hand, were more effective at converting their attacks into high-quality opportunities. For every entry into the opponent’s penalty area, the league leaders generated 0.096 xG.
What stands out about the Danes is their willingness to take shots from outside the penalty area. Half of their shots came from there. The home team’s attacking profile also includes a high number of crosses. Their strength on set pieces is also evident, having scored two consecutive goals on free kicks from midfield. Even though the bookmakers favor the Portuguese, this match is wide open.
