Will the Yellow Submarine go down against BVB again?
Borussia Dortmund will be the first Bundesliga team to kick off the group stage of the Champions League on Tuesday evening and is hoping for a successful start. In the match between Dortmund and Villarreal, the odds are certainly in favor of a home win for the Black and Yellows. After all, BVB has gotten off to an excellent start, picking up the full six points in the Bundesliga and even turning a 0-2 deficit at Hoffenheim into a 3-2 away victory. The Westphalians also sank the “Yellow Submarine” last November, when the La Liga side was sent home with a 0–4 loss.
On top of that, the team from Spain’s east coast has gotten off to the worst possible start. Villarreal remained winless in their first four La Liga matches (two draws, two losses) and even suffered a 2–3 defeat to Deportivo La Coruña in their final warm-up match. Our Dortmund vs. Villarreal prediction favors the home team, which has lost only two of its last 22 Champions League home games (13 wins, seven draws), to have a clear advantage. However, since we don’t expect an overly high-scoring match, we find the best value in the match combo of Double Chance 1X with under 4.5 goals, which also covers the possibility that the team from eastern Spain might fight their way to a draw at Signal Iduna Park.
However, we wouldn’t necessarily assume that BVB will lose the home game or fail to get more than a draw. After all, the “Yellow Submarine’s” Champions League record is simply too dismal—they’ve lost all five of their last away games in European competition with a goal difference of 0–13. Given this context, we also consider a bet on a home win for the Westphalians to be a solid option. For this, Interwetten is offering odds of 1.80 for Dortmund vs. Villarreal.
Dortmund vs. Villarreal AI Prediction
The AI also sees BVB as having a clear advantage in its Dortmund vs. Villarreal AI prediction and rates the Black-and-Yellows’ chance of winning at 52.5 percent. However, due to the low odds, the AI assesses that this bet offers no value. Instead, the AI finds value in betting that no more than one team will score.
Dortmund – Statistics & Current Form
Borussia Dortmund quickly bounced back from their Super Cup performance against Bayern Munich and went on to secure three consecutive competitive wins. Their 2-0 victory over Hamburger SV was followed by a comfortable win in the DFB Cup against underdog HEBC Hamburg, before the Black and Yellows showed great spirit in their final warm-up match over the weekend. After 54 minutes, Niko Kovac’s team was trailing 0–2 in Hoffenheim, but thanks in part to Serhou Guirassy—who recorded a goal and an assist—they still managed to secure a 3–2 road victory.
The forward already scored twice against Villarreal last season and is, of course, once again a hot favorite to find the net. Anyone looking to bet on this can find odds of 1.80 at Tipico for a Guirassy goal in the BVB vs. Villarreal match.
Dortmund is a force at home
The Black and Yellows’ greatest asset is and remains the Yellow Wall. In front of their home crowd, they’ve lost only two of their last 22 Champions League home games (13 wins, seven draws)—including that 4-0 victory over Villarreal last fall. Furthermore, Borussia have also steadily improved their home record against Spanish teams. Of their last 15 European home games against La Liga teams, BVB have lost only two (nine wins, four draws). In fact, they’ve won all three of their most recent home games against La Liga teams.
So the conditions are ideal for Kovac’s team, though they’ll also need to find the right defensive balance. After all, BVB’s league matches over the past two seasons have been nothing short of spectacular. A whopping 70 goals were scored in those 16 games—an average of 4.38 goals per match.
Villarreal – Statistics & Current Form
For Villarreal CF, the start of the season has been significantly more complicated. After four matches, Inigo Pérez’s team is still waiting for its first win (two draws, two losses). Although the players from Spain’s east coast managed to fight back from an early 0-2 deficit against Racing Santander to earn a 2-2 draw in their season opener, and their subsequent 2-2 draw at Atlético Madrid was a solid performance, two subsequent results were real mood-killers. They failed to pick up any points from the matches against Alavés (0–1) and in the dress rehearsal against Deportivo La Coruña (2–3).
As a result, the Yellow Submarine sits only in 16th place in La Liga and, having already conceded eight goals, boasts one of the weakest defenses in the country. These are not good conditions for a turnaround to materialize in the BVB vs. Villarreal match of all games, especially since Villarreal has also gone winless in its last six away games in Germany (three draws, three losses).
Villarreal wants to avoid another disaster in the Champions League
Even last season, the Yellow Submarine was a huge disappointment in the Champions League, finishing second-to-last in the group stage with just one point out of a possible 24. On the road, they’ve actually lost all five of their most recent European matches, with a goal differential of 1-16.
Things aren’t looking too rosy for the team from eastern Spain, which is competing in the Champions League for the sixth time, especially since they’ve now gone 11 consecutive Champions League games without a win across two seasons (two draws, nine losses).
The only silver lining: The 2021 Europa League champions have already scored six goals in four La Liga matches and, particularly against Atlético Madrid, have shown that on good days, even top teams can be troubled.
BVB – Villarreal Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1 – 0 – 0
Only one international competitive match has taken place between the two teams so far, and that game actually has a direct impact on our Dortmund vs. Villarreal prediction.
After all, the “Yellow Submarine” already visited Signal Iduna Park during the 2025–26 Champions League group stage and suffered a crushing 0–4 defeat.
BVB vs. Villarreal Prediction
Virtually everything points to the prediction of a home win for the Westphalians in BVB vs. Villarreal coming true. Dortmund started the Bundesliga season with a perfect six points and has lost only two of its last 22 Champions League home games (13 wins, seven draws). Villarreal CF, on the other hand, has lost all of its last five European away games by a combined score of 0–13 and has also had an absolutely disastrous start to La Liga, where it has yet to record a single win after four matchdays (two draws, two losses). Consequently, the Yellow Submarine travels to Signal Iduna Park as the clear underdog, where, to make matters worse, they suffered a 0–4 thrashing just last November.
Against this backdrop, we recommend the Match Combo from the Double Chance 1X market with under 4.5 goals, which, on the one hand, covers realistic BVB wins such as 2–0, 3–0, 3–1, or even another 4–0, while also providing a safety net for possible 0–0, 1–1, or 2–2 draws. Betano is offering odds of 1.65 for this bet on Dortmund vs. Villarreal, which we’re backing with seven out of ten units.
