Zidane’s First Home Game
It’s almost too fitting that Zinedine Zidane will play his first home game as France’s national team coach in the France vs. Italy matchup. Italy, of all countries—the very nation where he came into his own as a player with Juventus Turin. Against the very opponent France defeated in 1998 and 2000.
But also against the Azzurri who marked the end of his playing career in Berlin in 2006. In our France vs. Italy prediction, we’re also looking at an experienced coach on the opposing side: Roberto Mancini. His 61 years of life experience likely helped him bounce back from the opening loss to Belgium (0–2).
“Les Bleus” comfortably lead the group after two wins in two games. Based on their France vs. Italy odds, bookmakers assign the hosts an implied probability of winning of 70.9 percent. The Italian team’s probability stands at just 17.4 percent.
The team ranked third in the FIFA World Rankings has won six of its nine previous competitive matches without conceding a goal. The Italian national team heads to France for Matchday 3 in a more unsettled state. Their 0–2 loss to Belgium was followed by a 4–1 victory in Turkey.
France – Italy Head-to-Head Record
Italy has won just under half of the 41 head-to-head matches (20). In recent encounters, however, the French national team has caught up, almost always coming out on top. Most recently, “Les Bleus” have won four of their last five meetings.
The only exception was the first leg of the 2024 Nations League group stage. Back then, the “Equipe Tricolore” lost 1–3 on home soil. So far, however, the hosts have looked much more stable, which is why their prospects for a third win in their third group match are also very promising.
France vs. Italy Prediction
It’s not easy to pin down Zinedine Zidane as a coach. At Real Madrid, he won three consecutive Champions League titles without ever being perceived as an ideologue. Zidane embodied charisma, authority, timing, and composure. Perhaps that was less of a coincidence than it long seemed.
After two games as France’s national team coach, it’s still too early to identify a definitive “Zidane DNA.” But the first outlines are visible. France wants the ball—not as a showpiece, but as a safety mechanism. Against Turkey and Belgium, possession was just over 64 percent in each game. The pass completion rate was high, and the proportion of long balls was low.
France doesn’t try to make games chaotic. “Les Bleus” want to contain them. Compared to the Deschamps era, there are more runs and incursions into the penalty area. The ball is meant to move the opponent, while runs into the decisive zone are meant to seal the victory.
