Will the DFB team catch up to the Greeks?
The Greeks have been a real surprise team in the Nations League so far and lead Group A2 with seven points after three matchdays. That’s exactly why the Greece vs. Germany prediction promises an exciting matchup, as Greece currently holds a three-point lead over the German national team—with head-to-head results being the deciding factor in the event of a tie.
Following their 1-0 victory in Augsburg a few days ago, another win for the Greeks would be enough to leave the German national team behind once and for all. Nevertheless, hopes are high in the German camp following their first win under Jürgen Klopp. Florian Wirtz and his teammates are determined to go for the win at Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki, which is likely to be a cauldron of excitement.
The first three games under Klopp have once again shown just how strongly black-and-white thinking shapes coverage of German soccer. For example, not everything was bad in the first leg against Greece, while the win against Serbia, in my opinion, was by no means an outstanding performance—after all, the quality of the opponent must always be taken into account.
Serbia was barely able to make an impact offensively and had little to counter the German counter-pressing. Greece, however, takes a different approach: The Greeks will once again defend deep, presenting the German national team with a significantly more complicated challenge.
At the same time, the efficiency of Karetsas, Pavlidis, and company is impressive: They’ve scored five goals in their first three matches; most recently, Greece was already leading the Netherlands 2–0 before the Oranje managed to equalize at 2–2. Nevertheless, their confidence is sky-high, as their physical strength, effective defensive organization, and clinical finishing in the final third make Coach Ivan Jovanović’s team a tough opponent. That’s precisely why my Greece vs. Germany betting prediction goes against what might seem like a clear away win.
These observations are, for me, an initial indication that, ahead of the Greece vs. Germany match, I don’t necessarily view the odds of up to 2.00 on an away win as a profitable bet.
Instead, it seems more sensible to bet on more goals than in the first leg and on both teams scoring. Although Germany kept a clean sheet against Serbia for the first time in six international matches, their defense was hardly tested—that’s likely to change in Thessaloniki.
Greece, on the other hand, has rarely (3 times) kept a clean sheet in its past 13 international matches and, with its fast offensive players, has the tools to cause problems for the German defense. Klopp’s aggressive counter-pressing, in particular, could open up space behind the back line if the Greeks outplay the German press with precise passes.
Greece – Germany Head-to-Head Record
Historically, the head-to-head record clearly favors the German national team: In eleven previous matchups, the DFB team has secured seven wins, while Greece celebrated its very first victory just a week ago in Augsburg, and three matches ended in draws.
The most recent 0–1 loss for the DFB team showed just how much Jürgen Klopp’s squad struggled against the Greeks’ compact defense. Despite 75.8% possession, a 16-8 advantage in shots on goal, and five shots on target, Germany failed to score; Greece defended with discipline and capitalized on one of its few chances in the 74th minute to score the decisive goal.
Anyone who once again believes that Jovanovic’s team can bring the 2014 World Champions to their knees will find betting odds of 4.10 at Bet365 ahead of the Greece vs. Germany match.
Greece – Germany Prediction
The situation heading into Matchday 4 of the Nations League is clear: Greece enters the match as the group leader with seven points and, following the 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, still has its fate entirely in its own hands. Germany celebrated its first victory under Jürgen Klopp with a 2-0 win over Serbia on Thursday and gained new confidence.
Nevertheless, the task in Thessaloniki is likely to be significantly more complicated, as the Greeks have already proven in the first leg just how difficult they can be to handle with their compact defense and quick transitions. At the same time, the standings suggest that the hosts could be satisfied with a draw, while Germany will have to take more risks.
For my Greece vs. Germany prediction, the focus is therefore on the “Both Teams to Score” bet. Germany should approach the match with more confidence on offense following their win against Serbia, while the Greeks will also look to create chances in front of their home crowd.
