Will Hartberg’s offense remain harmless?
The reigning runner-up has already taken the field in several competitive matches so far this season. This is just one of many factors that make the visitors the clear favorites in our Hartberg vs. Sturm Graz tip.
The Blackies would likely have gladly accepted an early final whistle on opening day as well. Despite overwhelming dominance, the Black-and-Whites let a temporary lead slip away and dropped two points. However, according to our Hartberg vs. Sturm Graz prediction, that won’t happen again to Fabio Ingolitsch’s squad.
In our view, the visitors’ advantage in individual quality is simply too great. Under no circumstances should you let the results from the first matchday cloud your judgment when choosing your Hartberg vs. Sturm Graz betting odds. In their league opener, the Blue-Whites didn’t concede the goal that led to their 0–1 loss to RB Salzburg until the 89th minute.
Much earlier in the game, the result could have been significantly more lopsided. Over the course of the entire match, TSV allowed more than four expected goals. Head coach Markus Schopp’s team, meanwhile, managed only 0.59 xG.
Even last season, the offense was considered TSV’s weakness. No other team in the Austrian Bundesliga generated fewer expected goals than Hartberg (34.5 xG) last year. This area remains a critical factor as the new season gets underway.
Hartberg – Sturm Graz Head-to-Head Record
The last matchup between these two Bundesliga teams took place at the end of the previous season. The Blackies snatched three points from the Profertil-Arena in the final moments of the season, winning 4–2. That certainly isn’t a representative example of how their previous encounters typically played out.
Hartberg failed to score in three of their last four head-to-head matches against the reigning runner-up. In two of those three scoreless matches, TSV lost by the narrowest of margins, 0–1. The upcoming match on Matchday 2 could follow a similar pattern.
Hartberg vs. Sturm Graz Prediction
Just as on the first matchday, we expect the home team to line up in a 3-5-2 formation. Their opponents, Sturm Graz, will likely field a 4-4-2—probably with a diamond formation in the center of the field. Last season’s second-best projected defense was also the most successful back line.
Building on that foundation, Ingolitsch’s squad racked up many crucial points, which ultimately secured them the runner-up title. Defensively, the Blackies have also been mostly solid in the first competitive matches of this season. Only during their away game in Istanbul did the team lack the necessary intensity.
We expect the match in Hartberg to be less challenging. The home team will likely focus on using their defensive work to make this as evenly matched a contest as possible. However, based on their opening game, we don’t expect much more than a lucky punch from Schopp’s squad for now.
