Unbeaten in five matches against Belgium
We’re in for a true classic to kick off the Nations League. My Italy vs. Belgium prediction focuses on the clash between two nations currently in a state of transition. The Azzurri will host the Red Devils at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome on September 25, 2026, at 8:45 p.m., looking to put the pain of missing out on the World Cup behind them.
A key factor in my Italy vs. Belgium prediction is that both teams are starting this campaign with new or returning coaches. Roberto Mancini is back in charge of Italy, while Mark van Bommel has taken the reins for Belgium. Both are looking to start with a win, which suggests a closely contested match.
The bookmakers see the hosts as slight favorites, but the Italy vs. Belgium odds for a home win are by no means low. The Azzurri are estimated to have a roughly 47% chance of winning, which underscores the uncertainty heading into this matchup. Given recent developments with both teams, I expect an open game.
Italy vs. Belgium AI Prediction
The algorithm analyzes countless statistics, including expected goals (xG), to calculate the most likely match outcomes. For this matchup, the analysis suggests that both teams have the offensive firepower needed to find the back of the net.
Italy – Belgium Head-to-Head Record
The historical record clearly favors the Italians. In 26 meetings, the Squadra Azzurra has won 17 times, while Belgium has managed only four victories. Five matches ended in a draw. Notably, Italy is unbeaten in its last five head-to-head matches (four wins, one draw).
The most recent matches took place as part of the 2024 Nations League. Back then, the teams drew 2–2 in Italy before the Azzurri won the return leg in Belgium 1–0. However, the Italy vs. Belgium betting odds only partially reflect this historical dominance, as Belgium’s last victory dates back to 2015.
Italy vs. Belgium Prediction
Both national teams are in a phase of rebuilding. While Italy has won nine of its last eleven games, it has faced very few opponents ranked in the top 40 of the FIFA World Rankings. Belgium, on the other hand, was eliminated from the World Cup only in the quarterfinals by eventual champion Spain and has lost just one of its last 19 games. This highlights the high quality of the Red Devils’ roster.
My Italy vs. Belgium prediction is therefore: “Both teams to score.” The statistics for both teams, as well as their most recent head-to-head matches, clearly support this assumption. This bet has been successful in seven of the last ten head-to-head matches.
