Can the Giallorossi hold on to 17th place?
While Genoa CFC already has planning security and can look forward to another season in the top flight of Italian soccer, US Lecce is embroiled in a relegation battle. Although the Apulians head into the final matchday with a one-point lead over Cremonese, if the Grigiorossi were to unexpectedly beat Champions League hopefuls Como at home, Lecce would also need to secure a home win against Genoa for the Giallorossi to stay in the league.
If, on the other hand, Como 1907 sets the stage for an away win early on in Lombardy, that would take some pressure off Lecce as well.
If US Lecce is forced to play for a win, things could get critical, as they have managed just four wins (five draws, nine losses) in 18 Serie A home games—partly because Eusebio Di Francesco’s team has scored only twelve goals at home in those 18 matches. While conceding only 24 goals is certainly a strong statistic, the lack of offensive firepower could still prove to be the Apulians’ undoing, even though they are surprisingly clear favorites among the top bookmakers. Because this, in turn, drives up the odds for the visitors to earn a point, we recommend the Double Chance X2 in this matchup for value reasons.
Alternatively, in this basement battle—where the visitors from Liguria likely no longer have the greatest interest and the Giallorossi could be potentially nervous due to the relegation fight—it might be wise to simply avoid the three-way system altogether. A logical alternative is to bet on a match with not too many goals on Matchday 38 of Serie A.
For under 2.5 goals, the Betano app offers odds of 1.60 for Lecce vs. Genoa, which are very promising, especially considering that the first leg between the two teams saw no goals at all.
Lecce – Genoa Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 12 – 13 – 18
A total of 43 competitive matches have taken place between the two teams so far, and Genoa CFC leads the head-to-head record with 18 wins. US Lecce has had little to show for their efforts, particularly in recent encounters.
The Apulians have won only one of their last 16 competitive matches against the Grifone (five draws, ten losses). However, the first leg in Liguria ended in a scoreless draw.
Lecce – Genoa Prediction
It certainly hasn’t been a great season for either team, although Genoa CFC can at least claim to have some certainty regarding their future, while US Lecce is also somewhat dependent on Como 1907 securing an away win at US Cremonese to keep the Wolves’ closest pursuers at bay.
Given that the visitors from Liguria have nothing left to play for, our prediction for Lecce vs. Genoa leans toward the home side; however, with only four wins from 18 Serie A home games and just twelve home goals scored, there are several arguments against betting too lightly on the Ligurians.
We certainly wouldn’t give the home team more than a 50% chance of winning, especially since the Giallorossi have won only one of their last 16 competitive matches against Genoa CFC (five draws, ten losses). Given that the odds for the double chance X2 in the Lecce vs. Genoa match are 2.15, betting on the Rossoblu to earn a point is clearly the real value bet here.
