What records is Bayern still aiming for?

No other Bundesliga team has been able to match the German record champions this season. Last weekend, FCB won 4-2 against VfB Stuttgart and clinched the 35th championship in the club’s history. In our Mainz vs. Bayern prediction, we still expect a highly motivated Munich side.

Just because Vincent Kompany might rotate players in one position or another doesn’t mean the visitors’ offensive firepower has automatically disappeared in our Mainz vs. Bayern forecast. Based on their performances so far, there are plenty of indicators pointing to another show of strength from the newly crowned German champions.

First, let’s look at the starting point. An away win for Munich puts the Mainz vs. Bayern betting odds at a respectable level. Exclusively for Wettbasis readers, this Bwin bonus is currently available. With odds of 1.65, a “Bayern win” would be a solid bet.

Our preferred option is the Mainz vs. Bayern bet on “Bayern Over 2.5 Goals.” Betano offers odds of 2.35 for this bet. It would fit the FCB’s season if the offense once again makes itself unpopular on the road and scores plenty of goals.

Currently, the German record champions have matched their own Bundesliga record of 49 away goals in a single season. Just one more goal in their two remaining away matches would give Vincent Kompany’s team a new historic record.

Mainz vs. Bayern AI Prediction

The AI also agrees with our analysis and, based purely on the simulations run, has calculated an average of 2.59 goals for the visitors. Including the 1.31 goals our Mainz vs. Bayern AI prediction attributes to the home team, this match comes to a total of 3.90 goals – “Over 3.5 goals” in the game offers double-digit value and should be a clear target.

Mainz – Stats & Current Form

As a challenger to the German league leaders, FSV has done a good job in recent head-to-head matches. Especially at home, the “Nullfünfer” have taken great pleasure in upsetting FCB. Most recently, Mainz won four of five Bundesliga home games against Bayern.

Including the 2-2 draw in the first half of the season, the Rheinhessen side has earned points in five of the ten previous Bundesliga matches against the newly crowned German champions. But can the FSV keep pace with the firepower of the Bundesliga’s best offense again this coming weekend?

Nadiem Amiri stepped up to take a penalty in the seventh minute of stoppage time on the last matchday and converted it. He beat Moritz Nivolas and secured a point for Mainz against the Foals. However, it was also the only goal in their last three competitive matches.

High-quality finishing

If Bayern slip up this coming weekend, we expect a few lapses in concentration in their defensive work. Mainz, in turn, could capitalize on that. Since Urs Fischer took over as FSV coach, Mainz has sought out and found clear scoring opportunities.

Over the last 17 matchdays, only RB Leipzig and Dortmund have taken their shots from a closer average position to the goal than Mainz. The home team often found a shooting position with a clear view of the opposing goalkeeper through quick transitions and rehearsed attacking moves.

Across the league, only Bayern (0.16) and Dortmund (0.13) had more expected goals per shot than Mainz (0.13)—an indicator of the FSV’s high-quality chances. However, only three Bundesliga teams have taken fewer shots on the opponent’s goal than Mainz (115). This should definitely be taken into account when making a prediction between Mainz and Bayern.

Bayern – Statistics & Current Form

The treble is within reach for Munich this season. During the week, goals from Harry Kane and Luis Diaz carried Kompany’s side into the national cup final. For the first time since 2020, the 35-time German champions will once again compete in the DFB-Pokal final.

In the Champions League, FCB recently advanced to the semifinals, defeating Real Madrid and scoring six goals across both matches. Throughout the entire season, hardly any opponent has been able to dampen the Munich side’s joy in attacking play.

After 30 Bundesliga matches, the league leaders have already scored 109 goals. The last time the FCB players, under Hansi Flick, broke the 100-goal mark in a single Bundesliga season was in the 2019/2020 campaign. Accordingly, the Mainz vs. Bayern odds for betting on another high-scoring match are particularly interesting.

Still Hungry for Goals

Head coach Vincent Kompany will likely give one or two regular starters a rest, or at least limit their playing time. Up front, for example, Nicolas Jackson could take on the role as the lone striker, with Raphael Guerreiro playing behind him in the number 10 position.

These are by no means the weakest options—quite the opposite, in fact. Raphael Guerreiro (0.31 xG/shot) and Nicolas Jackson (0.18 xG/shot) have, on average, been given the most valuable finishing opportunities of any FCB player this season. Additionally, both players have built up excellent conversion rates in their appearances.

Furthermore, we expect the German record champions to remain extremely dangerous from their own set pieces. No other team in the German top flight has scored more set-piece goals than Bayern (18, the same number as Borussia Dortmund).

Mainz – Bayern Head-to-Head Record

Mainz has picked up points in five of the last ten Bundesliga meetings. It is equally true that the FSV has been blown out of the stadium in quite a few matches. In 2024, Bayern scored a total of 14 goals in three matches against Mainz—an average of 4.66 goals per game.

Mainz – Bayern Prediction

Bayern currently holds the fourth-longest away streak in Bundesliga history, having not lost a Bundesliga away game on Saturday for 497 days. That translates to 24 consecutive unbeaten Bundesliga away games. Ironically, Munich’s last away defeat came at the MEWA Arena.

However, this has little impact on our Mainz vs. Bayern prediction. At this point, Kompany’s team holds the largest lead at the top of the table (15 points) compared to all of Europe’s top five leagues and has had an impressive season so far.

Kompany will not tolerate a loss of momentum—success in the other two competitions—the DFB-Pokal and the Champions League—is simply too important. The “all-out attack” philosophy will be pursued with determination by a slightly altered starting lineup in Mainz and is sure to cause quite a stir.