Will the Magpies get revenge for their cup elimination?
Looking for a Newcastle vs. Everton prediction? On Monday night, the Magpies host the Toffees at the historic St. James’ Park for Matchday 9 of the current Premier League season. Kickoff is at 9:00 p.m. under the lights.
The hosts are eager for immediate redemption after being eliminated by the same opponent in the EFL Cup just a few days ago. This adds a special layer of intensity to the match. For a well-informed Newcastle vs. Everton prediction, we’ll take a detailed look at both teams’ current form. The visitors from Liverpool are still waiting for their first away win in the league this season.
Nevertheless, they arrive with the confidence of having won their last two head-to-head matches in a row. Only a single point separates the two teams in the standings, which promises a close match. The current Newcastle vs. Everton odds from licensed bookmakers slightly favor the home team. The calculated probability of a home win is about 43 percent. Everton has a chance of winning of around 33 percent.
I see an extremely interesting angle here, especially with the goal bets. My main pick is for over 1.5 goals for the hosts, as their offense has a lot of potential.
Newcastle vs. Everton AI Prediction
For our Newcastle vs. Everton AI prediction, I’m drawing on AI data. The model calculates the home team’s chance of winning at 46.1 percent. This puts the AI slightly above the estimates of traditional bookmakers, which suggests value. A draw is rated at 24.0 percent, while an away win stands at 29.9 percent.
The AI also expects an average of 2.85 goals over the course of the match. For the Magpies, the algorithm predicts exactly 1.60 goals, which mathematically supports my pick of over 1.5 goals for the home team. The Expected Goals (xG) clearly show that Newcastle generated a strong 2.09 xG in their most recent cup match despite the loss.
Newcastle – Everton Head-to-Head Record
Just a few days ago, these two storied teams faced off in the EFL Cup. In that match, the Toffees, coached by David Moyes, prevailed 3–1 in front of their home crowd and knocked the Magpies out of the competition. Overall, the historical record from 189 meetings—with 79 wins to 72—favors the visitors by the narrowest of margins.
When analyzing the Newcastle vs. Everton betting odds, the visitors’ recent dominance is undeniably striking. Everton has won three of the last five head-to-head matches and has recorded two consecutive victories against this opponent. Furthermore, both teams have found the back of the net in each of the past three meetings, which speaks to the offensive quality on both sides.
Newcastle – Everton Prediction
Despite the bitter defeat in the cup match, the home team put on a very impressive offensive display. With 28 shots and a high xG value, the only thing missing was the necessary efficiency in front of goal. Coach Matthias Jaissle will have to do without several injured attacking players, such as Lewis Miley, but Yoane Wissa will certainly pose a huge threat in the center of the attack.
The visitors are still without Jack Grealish due to an internal suspension. The Asian handicap line is set quite low at 0.0, -0.5 for Everton. The Asian handicap line for over 2.5 goals stands at 2.5, suggesting a high-scoring match.
The final Newcastle vs. Everton tip—over 1.5 goals for the home team—offers, in our view, fair odds of 1.97 (as of October 30, 2026, 3:01 p.m.). The Magpies will press hard from the start in front of their home crowd to quickly put their recent cup defeat behind them.
I expect a dominant performance from the hosts, who will capitalize on their chances much more effectively this time around. The statistical data strongly supports this assumption.
