Will Paris defend the UEFA Super Cup as well?
Paris Saint-Germain can make history on Wednesday night in Salzburg. The French side could become only the fourth team ever to defend the UEFA Super Cup, following in the footsteps of Ajax, AC Milan, and Real Madrid. After last year’s triumph over Tottenham, they’ll face another English opponent in the form of Europa League champion Aston Villa.
In the matchup between PSG and Aston Villa, the pick is, unsurprisingly, leaning toward the reigning Champions League champions. After all, under Luis Enrique, Paris has become the team to beat in European soccer and most recently defeated Arsenal in the Champions League final. However, the path to the next title is unlikely to be quite so straightforward: Six of the last eight European Super Cup matches have gone into extra time or a penalty shootout.
For the Parisians, preseason so far has been marked by the feeling that they’re “not quite up to speed yet.” Without many of their World Cup participants, they first suffered a decisive 0–3 loss to Mallorca, before managing a 1–1 draw against Manchester United. In the meantime, however, more and more key players are returning. Vitinha, Nuno Mendes, João Neves, and captain Marquinhos were already back on the field against United, while Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué, Fabian Ruiz, Achraf Hakimi, and Warren Zaïre-Emery will at least be options off the bench for Wednesday’s match.
I therefore expect a completely different performance from PSG in their first competitive match—more intensity, more determination, and above all, significantly more pace, even from the bench if necessary. After all, Luis Enrique is aiming for his 13th title since taking the helm in Paris. The statistics also favor the French favorites, by the way. PSG has scored in each of its last 28 competitive matches. Added to that is a probability of victory—calculated from the betting odds—of just under 60%. That’s one of the reasons why my PSG vs. Aston Villa prediction calls for a French victory in regulation time.
Aston Villa, however, is by no means traveling to Salzburg as mere window dressing. The English side has had a historic season, ending its 30-year drought without a major title with a 3-0 win over Freiburg in the Europa League final, and now wants to add another trophy to its collection right away.
However, coach Unai Emery has lost three key players: Youri Tielemans, Lucas Dinge, and Morgan Rogers. While the squad has been bolstered with notable signings like João Gomes, Alejandro Garnacho, and the Swiss player Johan Manzambi, the former Freiburg player and World Cup breakout star, for example, is immediately sidelined due to injury. Captain John McGinn and Amadou Onana are also unavailable due to injuries. Emiliano Martínez, Ezri Konsa, and Ollie Watkins are likewise not yet ready for a starting role following their extended World Cup break.
The intense preseason, which included three wins and three losses, also revealed defensive concerns. They lost 2–4 to Real Sociedad, 1–2 to Porto, and most recently 1–2 to Bayern Munich. That’s why I find it entirely understandable that the PSG vs. Aston Villa odds favor the Champions League winner.
PSG – Aston Villa Head-to-Head Record
If you take their most recent matchups as a benchmark, PSG is likely to have a few unpleasant memories heading into their rematch with Aston Villa. The only two head-to-head matches ever took place in the quarterfinals of the 2024–25 Champions League. Back then, Paris turned a 0–1 deficit in the first leg into a 3–1 victory in front of their home crowd, but after taking a 2–0 lead in the second leg, they had to endure a nerve-wracking finish and ultimately lost 2–3. Nevertheless, they secured advancement with a 5–4 aggregate score.
PSG now boasts a remarkable record against English clubs. On their way to the 2025–2026 Champions League titles, they defeated almost exclusively Premier League teams. Added to that is last year’s aforementioned Super Cup triumph over Tottenham, when Enrique’s team trailed 0–2 for much of the match, scored twice late, and ultimately prevailed in a penalty shootout.
PSG – Aston Villa Prediction
Paris travels to Salzburg, Austria, as the reigning “double” Champions League winner and Super Cup title holder, while Villa is still searching for the right balance after an intense summer and several high-profile departures. The English side’s most recent friendlies, in particular, revealed defensive problems, whereas PSG—despite a bumpy preseason—possesses significantly greater individual quality.
The current market assessment also clearly favors the French side. Nevertheless, the match should be exciting, especially since six of the past eight matches between Champions League and Europa League winners have gone beyond 90 minutes. So, despite having some stars who won’t be ready for a full 90 minutes yet, PSG must deliver—and that’s exactly what I believe Enrique’s team is capable of in what is their first competitive match of the season.
When looking at the actual PSG vs. Aston Villa prediction, I ultimately see more factors in favor of the favorite than against them. The Parisians have repeatedly demonstrated their international class against top English clubs recently and, of course, are well aware of just how difficult Villa can be. At the same time, more and more stars are returning from the summer break, allowing Luis Enrique to bring in tremendous quality, especially in the second half.
I therefore expect a PSG win after 90 minutes and also see Khvicha Kvaratskhelia as an interesting pick on the goalscorer market. The Georgian is fit, has already scored in the Champions League final, and was one of Paris’s key attacking players in last season’s Champions League campaign.
