Will the Royals drop more points?
A long international break is followed by a grueling schedule for Europe’s top clubs. Starting with the Real Madrid vs. Villarreal match, the Royals kick off a stretch of five games in 16 days this coming weekend. Perhaps this is exactly what Jose Mourinho and his players need right now.
At the end of this grueling stretch, the first El Clásico of the season is on the schedule. As of our Real Madrid vs. Villarreal prediction, they’re already six points behind Barça. Under no circumstances should that gap widen before the head-to-head matchup.
At the start of the season, the visitors struggled to get results. Two draws (both 2-2 against Racing Santander and Atlético Madrid) were followed by three straight losses. With two 3-1 wins against Málaga and Levante, the “Yellow Submarine” headed into the international break on a somewhat positive note.
Real Madrid likes to play vertically when in possession—seeking quick and direct connections all the way into the opponent’s penalty area. Dangerous shots are often triggered by dynamic runs into the box. This, of course, suits the players’ profiles.
On the other hand, the “White Ballet” failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their seven matches. Furthermore, the visitors have scored at least two goals in five of their seven La Liga matches.
Real Madrid – Villarreal Head-to-Head Record
The recent matchups have rarely lacked excitement. The Royals, in particular, have repeatedly enjoyed their own goal-scoring sprees. Real has won its last four head-to-head matches in a row and scored two or more goals in eight consecutive matches.
The first matches of the current season also point to a continuation of this scoring streak. The Royals have won all three of their La Liga home games, scoring four goals in each. But defense remains a critical factor. Most recently, Mourinho’s team conceded two goals in two league matches.
Real Madrid vs. Villarreal Prediction
Both teams bring their own unique styles of attacking soccer to this matchup. As a result, both teams pose a significant threat. The average quality of chances created by Real Madrid (0.14 xG/shot) and Villarreal (0.15 xG/shot) is well above the league average.
If we exclude set-piece attempts from this equation, the Madrid side even reaches a value of 0.158 xG/shot. Villarreal’s figures hover just above that (0.163 xG/shot). However, the visitors cannot compete with the home team’s volume of set pieces (3.53 set-piece xG).
Under Jose Mourinho, the Galácticos press less (14.3 PPDA, 72 pressing sequences) than the Yellow Submarine (9.8 PPDA, 99 pressing sequences), but they do so with greater precision. 29.4 percent of their high-pressure ball recoveries led to a shot on goal (15/51). The visitors managed 17.1 percent.
