Will Sevilla end its losing streak against Valencia?
Valencia took a real beating against FC Barcelona last matchday (0-5). With this defeat, the Bats slipped to the bottom of the table ahead of our Sevilla vs. Valencia tip. One point from four La Liga matchdays is definitely not enough. Surprisingly, however, the defense is definitely a source of hope.
Carlos Corberan’s team plays a 3-4-3 formation. Including the numbers from the Barça game, the average statistics look weaker than they did over the first three matchdays. Through the third matchday, the Blanquinegros had allowed only 30 opponent shots, with a chance quality resulting in an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.28. The visitors are counting on these strengths again in this Sevilla vs. Valencia prediction.
The issues on offense are more complicated. Los Ches failed to score in three of their four La Liga matches. Far too few of their shots were on target (31.4 percent). Consequently, Valencia ranks low in the league in terms of xG (16th).
As visitors to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán, the Blanquinegros will need to bring a game plan to face one of La Liga’s most direct teams. The hosts settle for an average of 42.7 percent possession (18th) and play the fewest passes per sequence (2.54). Their attacking play is characterized by verticality. No other team in Spain’s top flight plays a higher percentage of its passes forward than Los Rojiblancos (41.7 percent).
They deliberately shift the risk to relatively harmless areas, ensuring their defense remains relatively solid—with 5.34 expected goals conceded, Sevilla ranks among the seven strongest expected defensive teams so far. What stood out in the early rounds was the significant impact made by players coming off the bench. Four of the team’s seven goals this season were scored by substitutes.
Spectators can expect a fast-paced, back-and-forth game in which both teams will have only brief spells of possession. This suits the hosts’ DNA better, as they enter the match with greater confidence anyway.
Sevilla – Valencia Head-to-Head Record
For years, head-to-head matches between Los Nervionenses and Los Ches have featured very few goals. Anyone who attended one of the previous ten matchups at the stadium most likely saw no more than two goals scored between kickoff and the final whistle (8/10). Furthermore, Valencia has generally come out unscathed, losing only two of the previous ten encounters (3W, 5D).
It doesn’t take much imagination to see that this streak is coming to an end. The visitors are struggling with their results this season (1 draw, 3 losses) and their own attacking play. Sevilla, on the other hand, converts a high percentage of their chances (15.22 percent shot conversion rate) and, despite low possession, has managed a respectable number of touches in the opponent’s penalty area (84).
Sevilla – Valencia Prediction
A lack of confidence isn’t exactly helpful in matches against the high-pressing Sevillistas—especially when playing away in their electric arena. The home team often gets into defensive duels quickly and disrupts the opponent’s build-up play relatively early (10.6 PPDA).
Their plays and triggers seem to be well-coordinated. Out of 36 high ball recoveries (3rd), they generated five shots and one goal. The short transition following high ball recoveries could prove particularly important, because: Valencia defends its own penalty area with considerable discipline. Only 56.90 percent of the opponent’s shots were taken inside the penalty area.
We’re sending the hosts onto the field with a slight edge. Anticipating a low-scoring and rather frantic match, we see a high probability that the Bats’ offense will fail to score for the fourth time this season.
