Can Sturm Graz do what PSG couldn’t?
Sturm Graz is entering the group stage of the Europa League for the second year in a row. Last year, however, the Styrians finished in 26th place with two wins, one draw, and five losses, and were eliminated early. This time, the Blackies are looking to do better, but they’ll face a formidable opponent right off the bat. On paper, ahead of the Sturm Graz vs. Rennes matchup, the odds favor an away win for the French side, as Stade Rennes travels to Austria sitting in third place in Ligue 1 and in strong form. Thanks to its abundance of top young players, the team from Brittany is considered—and not without reason—one of France’s major talent incubators.
The French team’s status as favorites is based primarily on a strong start to the season at the national level. After four Ligue 1 matches, Rennes has three wins and one draw and turned heads with a 2-2 draw against Paris Saint-Germain, among other results, before following that up with a 1-0 win over Marseille on the last matchday. Speaking of the last matchday: In Graz, the ÖFB’s scheduling is currently causing some discontent. While Rennes was able to face Marseille as early as Friday, Sturm had to play their top match against LASK on Sunday. In the Sturm Graz vs. Rennes prediction, however, this recovery advantage for the visitors shouldn’t play a major role at this early stage of the season, especially since European cup nights in Styria remain something special.
I’m therefore not averse to betting on the Double Chance 1X between Sturm Graz and Rennes. The Austrian runner-up heads into this matchup with plenty of confidence following their 2-1 win over the previously undefeated LASK and has also won four of their last six European home games in the league or group stages. Statistically speaking, Sturm is also a tough team to beat at home. In 14 home games under Fabio Ingolitsch, they’ve suffered just a single loss—in the Champions League playoffs against Fenerbahçe (0–1).
Alternatively, it would also be conceivable to bet on over goals. On the one hand, because in the last four competitive matches involving the Styrians, both teams have always scored; on the other hand, because Stade Rennes’ recent matches have featured high xG values. Aside from that, at least three goals were scored in ten of the Red-and-Blacks’ last eleven competitive matches across seasons!
Sturm Graz – Rennes Head-to-Head Record
The head-to-head history between the two clubs is brief, as Sturm Graz and Rennes are facing each other in a competitive match for the very first time. However, the French side has yet to secure a victory in their previous away matches in Austria, with one draw and one loss to their credit.
Sturm, too, has had little to celebrate against French teams recently and has been waiting for a win for six matches (0-2-4). However, this does not appear to have a significant impact on the Sturm Graz vs. Rennes betting odds.
Sturm Graz – Rennes Prediction
At first glance, the circumstances suggest a close Europa League matchup. Rennes arrives in strong form as the third-place team in Ligue 1, while Sturm heads into its international opener with plenty of confidence following a 2-1 win over the previously undefeated LASK. Especially at home, the Blackies are by no means easy to beat and have won four of their last six European home games. The additional travel strain on the French side shouldn’t be underestimated either, as Rennes must even take up quarters in Maribor, Slovenia, due to the tight hotel situation surrounding the MotoGP weekend.
In my view, the odds on the Blackies are therefore set too high, so I see the value more on the hosts’ side. The home-field advantage, the fresh momentum from their victory over LASK, and the special atmosphere of a European cup night all suggest that Sturm can put up significantly more resistance against the supposed favorites than the market suggests. I’m therefore placing a bet on the Sturm Graz vs. Rennes match for the Double Chance 1X at 1.85 with four units.
