Champions League qualification is on the line in Stuttgart

For a long time, all eyes were on the relegation battle in the Bundesliga. In the meantime, however, a very exciting race for Champions League spots has also heated up. Because it is not yet certain whether Germany will be allowed to send four or five clubs to the Champions League, four clubs are aiming to finish the season in the top four. The VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen match on Saturday afternoon will logically have a huge impact on the standings!

The Swabians and the 2024 double winners are currently tied on points in fourth and fifth place, respectively. However, because coach Sebastian Hoeneß’s team has the worse goal difference and still faces a potentially tricky away match in Frankfurt on the final matchday, the pressure is palpable.

A home win against their direct rival is firmly on the agenda, even though the Werkself gained a lot of confidence last week and suddenly have their Champions League qualification back in their own hands. However, to justify a prediction in favor of the visitors between VfB Stuttgart and Leverkusen, it will take more than just momentum.

Meanwhile, the bookmakers are leaning more toward the home team. At least, that’s what the VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen odds on the 1X2 market suggest. This perceived favorite status is primarily due to the Swabians’ home form, as they have collected the third-most points in front of their own fans, behind Bayern and Dortmund.

VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen AI Prediction

Artificial intelligence expects a very close contest. Nevertheless, a slight advantage is attributed to Stuttgart. This is evidenced by the xG values of 1.90 to 1.60. The AI therefore does not provide a prediction on the 1X2 market, but instead focuses on over goals. The xG values total 3.5 goals. Looking at the odds of 1.80 for Over 3.5, the Wettbasis supercomputer is predicting at least four goals in the match between VfB Stuttgart and Leverkusen based on the AI forecast.

VfB Stuttgart – Statistics & Current Form

At the worst possible time, in the final stretch of this season, VfB Stuttgart has faltered. The Swabians have managed just one win in their last five matchdays. In total, they’ve earned only five points from those five games—seven fewer than their upcoming opponent from Leverkusen. What was previously a fairly strong position in the race for Champions League spots has turned into a high-pressure situation. If Hoeneß’s team comes up short in Saturday’s head-to-head clash against the Werkself, a top-four finish will be virtually out of reach…

Will VfB Stuttgart shoot their way back into pole position at home?

However, there is confidence in the south of the country. Especially at home, Undav and Co. have usually been there when needed this season. They have won five of their last seven home games, four of them even without conceding a goal. Overall, only BVB has conceded fewer goals in front of their own fans than VfB.

While I don’t necessarily expect the Swabians to keep a clean sheet again ahead of Matchday 33 in the Bundesliga, I still see good chances of success with the VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen prediction for a home win. Those looking to take on even more risk will find a very respectable 3.10 for the match combo “VfB win with both teams to score” in the Bet-at-home app.

Leverkusen – Stats & Current Form

Unlike VfB Stuttgart, Bayer Leverkusen’s form has been on a steady upward trajectory for several weeks. The Werkself have won four of their last five Bundesliga matches. As part of this positive trend, they also secured victories in their home game against RB Leipzig (4-1) and their away match at Borussia Dortmund (1-0). Confidence has skyrocketed, the individual pieces are meshing better, and the Champions League is suddenly within reach again.

Leverkusen’s recent matches have been high-scoring

While the Rhinelanders have felt quite comfortable in the role of “the hunted” in the recent past, this changes with the away match at the MHP Arena. Leverkusen now has something to lose, namely their current fourth-place standing. I fear this will have a negative impact on the performance of coach Kasper Hjulmand’s team. The feet score goals, the head decides the game…

By the way: Betting on goals in games involving Bayer has been a good idea lately. In five of the last six matches, the Over 2.5 would have paid off. In eight of the Werkself’s last ten matches, both teams also found the back of the net. However, since a match with at least three goals yields only low VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen betting odds, I’m limiting the analysis to the second half. The fact is that both teams want and need to play for the win. Over 1.5 (2nd half) is therefore a solid compromise at odds of 1.55 at Betano.

VfB Stuttgart – Leverkusen Head-to-Head Record

Bayer 04 Leverkusen can definitely be described as a bogey team for VfB Stuttgart. Out of the past 16 competitive matches, the Swabians have managed to win just one against the Rhinelanders. That was in the first leg, in which Hoeneß’s side surprisingly dominated with a 4-1 victory at the BayArena.

At home, however, VfB has been waiting 13 matches for a win against the Werkself. You have to go back 16 years in the annals to find one.

In my opinion, however, history plays only a minor role, which is why the head-to-head record ahead of the VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen clash does not significantly influence the odds.

VfB Stuttgart – Leverkusen Prediction

When fifth-place Stuttgart hosts fourth-place Leverkusen at the MHP Arena on Saturday afternoon, it’s not just a true top-of-the-table clash in terms of the standings, but also a match that could potentially decide the race for Champions League spots.

The pressure is weighing more heavily on the home side, who cannot afford a loss. With just one win in their last five matches, betting on Stuttgart is certainly a bit risky, although I cite their home form as a clear advantage for Hoeneß’s team.

Despite the Werkself’s strong form, I’m therefore going with the VfB Stuttgart vs. Leverkusen tip for a home win. The 2.16 odd are worth a stake of four units to me. Alternatively, if you’re willing to take a bit of a risk, you can also combine the home win with both teams to score.