Can the Welsh get revenge for the first leg?
The Wales vs. Denmark preview accompanies the fourth matchday of the Nations League on Sunday. At Cardiff City Stadium, the 38th-ranked team in the world will face the higher-ranked Scandinavians (21st). In terms of squad value as well, Brian Riemer’s squad, valued at around 393 million euros, is significantly ahead of the hosts’ approximately 169 million.
Due to their superior individual talent, the Danes are naturally the favorites going into this match. However, with 3 points each from their first 3 games, the two teams were separated only by goal difference (-2 vs. -1).
In search of the best possible prediction, let’s first look at the home and away records. In 2025–26, Wales won four of nine matches at home, drew three, and lost two. With a goal tally of 20:11, an average of 3.44 goals were scored per game. The home team was thus tough to beat at home, but they didn’t consistently keep a clean sheet defensively.
During the same period, Denmark won two of seven away games, drew twice, and lost three times. Their goal difference of 16–11 corresponded to a high average of 3.86. The Wales vs. Denmark odds must therefore take two opposing factors into account: the home team’s strong home record and the Riemer-led squad’s away record, which leaves room for improvement.
For the Wales vs. Denmark prediction, the most recent results are, of course, particularly relevant. Bellamy’s squad drew 1–1 with Ghana, then lost 1–2 to Romania and 0–1 to Portugal, and fell 0–2 to their upcoming opponent in the first leg. Most recently, however, they managed a small breakthrough with a 2–1 win over Norway.
It was their first win in seven matches. The Danes drew 1–1 with the Czech Republic and 0–0 with the Congo. This was followed by a 2–3 loss to Denmark, the victory over Wales, and most recently a 2–4 loss to Portugal. In terms of form, neither team is particularly impressive.
Wales – Denmark Head-to-Head Record
What does the historical record reveal? For the Wales vs. Denmark betting odds, seven head-to-head matches show a clear split: Two games went to the Welsh, five to the Scandinavians. With a goal tally of 13–3, there were no draws. Riemer’s team won the first leg of the current Nations League season 2-0 in front of their home crowd on September 27.
The Danes have thus won the last four matchups, scoring at least two goals against their rivals in each. In four of the most recent five encounters, the team from the north also scored the first goal. So it’s now clear why the Danes are the favorites in this matchup.
Wales – Denmark Prediction
Our Wales vs. Denmark betting tip is “Denmark to score over 1.5 goals.” This recommendation is based on two factors: the superior quality of the Danish squad and their recent head-to-head record. In the 2-0 victory in the first leg, the Scandinavians scored two goals and controlled the decisive phases of the game.
They also scored at least two goals in each of the three previous head-to-head matches. Bellamy’s squad conceded 28 goals in 17 matches during the 2025–26 season and has failed to keep a clean sheet in its last eight consecutive matches. Riemer’s team scored 41 goals during the same period, demonstrating enough offensive firepower to score at least two goals.
An alternative bet would be “Both Teams to Score.” The Wales vs. Denmark odds for this selection reflect the defensive concerns on both sides. The hosts have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last eight consecutive matches, though they have scored 20 goals in nine home games during the 2025–26 season. The visitors have scored in ten of their last eleven games but have conceded at least one goal in six of their last nine appearances.
Eight of Denmark’s most recent 11 matches have even surpassed the 2.5-goal mark. The Welsh team’s scoreless first leg shouldn’t obscure the bigger picture: Bellamy’s squad should come out playing more boldly in front of their home crowd, while the visitors’ offensive quality promises plenty of danger. A 1-1 or 1-2 result fits the expected flow of the game.
