Can Zverev Pull It Off Without Any Drama?
“Matches like this are why I go to the gym,” Alexander Zverev quipped moodily at 2:15 a.m. local time after his second marathon match, in which he had to literally wrestle Quentin Halys to a 3-2 victory. In the end, the Frenchman lacked the stamina to keep up with the French Open champion, who remained in the tournament despite another inconsistent performance. According to the top betting providers, the odds are still in favor of the top-seeded player, Alexander Zverev, to win his upcoming match against Alejandro Tabilo. After all, Sascha already defeated the Chilean 3-0 in straight sets in the first round of the 2025 U.S. Open.
However, the Chilean clay-court specialist has made tremendous strides on hard courts. Not only did the No. 25 seed knock out Yannick Hanfmann, but he also defeated Dimitrov-beater Alexei Popyrin. In particular, he showed significant improvement on his serve, winning not only 83 percent of points on his first serve against the Australian but also an impressive 61 percent on his second. If the Chilean can replicate this performance on the court, the outlook for the match between Alexander Zverev and Alejandro Tabilo—which is expected to go at least four sets—looks very promising. This is especially true because Sascha has been struggling in recent tournaments since his strong performance at Wimbledon and has already had to play ten sets at the US Open.
Alexander Zverev has now played 18 matches that went the full five sets during the first week of the four Grand Slam tournaments—an all-time record on the ATP Tour. If he doesn’t want to increase that number any further, he’ll need to show more tenacity, especially when converting his break points. The match against Quentin Halys went on for so long partly because the German failed to convert 15 of his 20 break points.
Alexander Zverev – Alejandro Tabilo Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 2:0
The two athletes have faced each other twice so far, and in both cases, Alexander Zverev came out on top. While the German had to literally fight off the Chilean clay-court specialist in their first meeting in Rome after falling behind 0-1 in sets, the second match was at least a clear victory. A year ago, Alejandro Tabilo suffered a 0-3 defeat right here at Flushing Meadows.
Alexander Zverev – Alejandro Tabilo Prediction
On paper, Sascha should be able to defeat his Chilean challenger with ease. However, the same was true for the two previous rounds, in which the German each time came close to the five-hour mark, stayed on the court well past midnight, and was only able to prevail 3-2 in each match thanks to his unstoppable physicality. Alejandro Tabilo, who has improved significantly—particularly on his serve, which was long considered his greatest weakness—certainly senses an opportunity to avenge last year’s 0-3 loss in the opening match of the 2025 US Open, especially since the Chilean clay-court specialist has now advanced to the third round of a hard-court Grand Slam for the first time.
Once again, we consider it far more likely that this match will go the distance than that Sascha will roll over his opponent 3-0. We therefore recommend betting that this match will also require at least four sets to determine the winner. For over 3.5 sets in the Alexander Zverev vs. Alejandro Tabilo match, Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.78, which we’re backing with five out of ten units.
