Zverev faces his nemesis!

The final Masters in Paris is coming up, and here are our pick and odds for Alexander Zverev’s opening match against Lorenzo Musetti. The German is competing as the world No. 1 for the first time in his career! He claimed the top spot last week by reaching the quarterfinals in Vienna.

However, his run along the Danube only took him as far as the semifinals, and Sascha’s performances were mixed. In Musetti, he faces an opponent who has given him trouble for quite some time. Three of the past four matches against the Italian ended in defeat for the 2024 Paris Masters champion.

We don’t expect it to be a walk in the park for the Hamburg native, and for the match between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti, we’re predicting that the player from Carrara—who has been in strong form lately anyway—will win at least one set.

Alexander Zverev – Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-Head Record

Head-to-Head: 2:3

Zverev and Musetti faced off in the semifinals of the ATP tournament in Vienna last October. At that time, the German prevailed in two sets, although he ultimately failed to win the tournament after losing to Jannik Sinner in the final.

As mentioned at the beginning, however, looking back at their last four meetings, that was the Hanseatic player’s only victory in this matchup. Furthermore, Zverev has a negative overall record against the world No. 24, with two wins and three losses.

Moreover, one of those wins came solely because the Italian retired due to injury. Regardless, the odds for the upcoming match between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti favor a victory for the German.

Alexander Zverev – Lorenzo Musetti Prediction

Lorenzo Musetti reached his career-high ranking of No. 5 in the world in January of this year. However, this was followed by a difficult season repeatedly marred by injuries.

As a result, the Italian missed key tournaments like Wimbledon and slipped back in the world rankings. Currently, however, he is in top form, as evidenced by his tournament victory in Lyon this month. Throughout the tournament, Musetti lost no more than two sets and prevailed in the final against top American player Taylor Fritz.

Alex Zverev, for his part, has been the new world No. 1 since last Monday and is looking back on the best year of his career. At the same time, he appears increasingly physically fatigued toward the end of the season and, after numerous highlights this season—including two Grand Slam triumphs—doesn’t seem quite mentally fresh.

Given this context—and the fact that he doesn’t fare well against Italian players—we see sufficient value in the betting odds for the Italian underdog to win a set in the match between Alexander Zverev and Lorenzo Musetti at the Plenitude Arena.