Will the Belarusian complete her US Open title hat trick?
The field has thinned out, and at least in the U.S., there’s widespread disappointment that neither Jessica Pegula nor Coco Gauff made it to the final—both were eliminated in the semifinals. Consequently, today we’re bringing you our Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina pick, which is generating some interesting headlines.
For the first time since Steffi Graf and Arantxa Sánchez Vicario in 1994, the same two women are competing for the title in both hard-court Grand Slam finals. For the first time since the 2013 US Open, the top two seeds are in the grand final, and it’s already clear that, regardless of the outcome of the final, Elena Rybakina will replace the Belarusian as the world No. 1 on Monday. That certainly takes some pressure off the Kazakhstani.
It’s worth noting that while Aryna Sabalenka has won their last two head-to-head matches and leads the head-to-head record 10–7, reigning world champion Elena Rybakina defeated the Belarusian in both the 2025 WTA Finals and the 2026 Australian Open finals. That makes it difficult to predict the outcome of the match between Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina, though it could very well live up to expectations. We think it’s very likely that the match will go the full three sets, so we’re betting on over 2.5 sets.
The reason for this is that the Kazakhstani player managed only eight wins in 14 singles matches played in the Big Apple leading up to this year’s US Open and has generally struggled in New York City, whereas Aryna Sabalenka is completely in her element at Flushing Meadows.
Aryna Sabalenka – Elena Rybakina Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 10–7
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have faced each other 17 times already, and with ten wins, the Belarusian leads the head-to-head series.
However, in 2026, the Kazakhstani player defeated the two-time defending US Open champion in the Australian Open final; she is set to replace her as the world No. 1 on Monday regardless of the outcome of the final. After that, however, Aryna Sabalenka defeated the Kazakh player in both the final at Indian Wells and the semifinals in Miami.
Aryna Sabalenka – Elena Rybakina Prediction
The outgoing world No. 1 faces the new world No. 1, resulting in the most likely final in a tournament where there have been no major upsets. We see Aryna Sabalenka as having a clear advantage at Flushing Meadows after winning 19 consecutive singles matches, especially since the defending champion was on the court for just 80 minutes against Jessica Pegula and secured a clean 2-0 victory, while Elena Rybakina needed a 2-1 comeback win against Coco Gauff and spent nearly an entire hour longer on the court than her opponent. In the quarterfinals, the Kazakhstani player was also down 0-1 in sets against China’s Qinwen Zheng.
Given this context, however, there’s also strong evidence to suggest that the player who loses the first set won’t collapse but will be able to fight back, especially since the matches between these two players have usually been quite close. We therefore recommend betting on over 2.5 sets, for which Betano is offering odds of 2.20 on the Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina match. We’re investing four out of ten units on this bet.
