Can the local favorite pull off an upset despite being the underdog?
In the second round of the Stuttgart Open, two former tournament champions face off. Laura Siegemund, who was born in Filderstadt, very close to the Baden-Württemberg state capital, claimed one of her only two career singles titles on the WTA Tour in Stuttgart in 2017.
Former world No. 1 Iga Swiatek of Poland, meanwhile, won the title at the Porsche Arena in 2022 and 2023. Given that the German has lost six of her ten singles matches in 2026, the prediction that the local hero will prevail in the match between Iga Swiatek and Laura Siegemund does not look very promising.
However, Iga Swiatek has also lost six singles matches in 2026, has slipped to fourth in the WTA world rankings, and has just changed coaches. Under Francisco Roig, the Polish player, who has already won the French Open four times, now aims to reach for the stars again during the clay-court season. To some extent, however, the Stuttgart Open will also serve as a litmus test. We do see a certain risk of a stumble here, especially since Laura Siegemund just took a set off former world champion Elina Svitolina at Indian Wells. Accordingly, it’s an interesting bet that the Filderstadt native will win at least one set against Iga Swiatek for the first time.
If the Polish player brings to the court the top form she has just been intensively honing with Francisco Roig at the Rafael Nadal Academy, it should, on paper at least, be a one-sided affair. Nevertheless, we estimate that the tenacious player from Filderstadt—who, after all, claimed the overall victory in Stuttgart nine years ago—has about a 25 percent chance of winning a set, which, given the high odds, is enough to generate a positive expected value.
Iga Swiatek – Laura Siegemund Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 2:0
The two players have faced each other twice so far, and in both cases it was a very one-sided affair. In 2021, they faced off on clay in Madrid, where Iga Swiatek defeated the Filderstadt native in straight sets, 2-0 (6-3, 6-3). Two years later, they met again in Warsaw in the final of the Poland Open. Laura Siegemund narrowly avoided a bagel in that match (0-6, 1-6).
Iga Swiatek – Laura Siegemund Prediction
The betting odds from top bookmakers for Iga Swiatek vs. Laura Siegemund clearly favor the Polish player, who is virtually unbeatable on clay, as evidenced by her four overall victories at the French Open.
However, the fact that the odds are so lopsided means that even a very low probability of the Filderstadt native winning a set still yields a positive expected value.
Consequently, the prediction that the 38-year-old will take a set from the Polish top favorite in the Iga Swiatek vs. Laura Siegemund match is particularly interesting. After all, in Indian Wells, the Filderstadt native only just managed to win a set against former world champion Elina Svitolina, who had reached the semifinals of the 2026 Australian Open just a few weeks earlier.
