Will Carlitos take down the local hero?

When Tommy Paul fought back against Alexander Bublik after more than three hours—and having trailed 1-2 in sets at one point—and converted the match point for a 3-2 victory, the crowd in New York City erupted in cheers. After all, the 29-year-old American was born in New Jersey, making him the quintessential local hero at the US Open. If the prediction that Tommy Paul will beat Carlos Alcaraz and secure another victory for the American comes true, it would be a massive upset. After all, the seven-time Grand Slam champion from Spain has won all five of their most recent head-to-head matches.

That said, Tommy Paul is actually a good omen for Carlitos. Back at the 2026 Australian Open, the Spaniard defeated the American 3-0 in the round of 16 on his way to his most recent Grand Slam title. Accordingly, the odds for the Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz match heavily favor the Spaniard leaving nothing to chance once again. After all, the 23-year-old has dropped only a single set so far and has improved his record to 27 wins out of 30 singles matches played at Flushing Meadows. Against Yibing Wu, however, Carlitos won only 69 percent of points on his first serve and faced seven break points—five of which he managed to fend off.

We still expect the Spaniard—who, despite not having his best day in the third round, managed to secure a commanding 3-0 victory—to step it up again. For Tommy Paul, who has lost 32 of his 48 career singles matches against current Top 10 players, winning a set is likely to be a distant prospect. We don’t even think a tiebreak is all that likely.

Tommy Paul – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Record

Head-to-Head: 6-2

The two players have faced each other eight times, and with six wins, Carlos Alcaraz holds a clear lead in their head-to-head record against Tommy Paul. While the American won two of their first three matches against the young Spaniard—which took place during the early stages of the now seven-time Grand Slam champion’s ATP Tour career—Carlitos has won the last five encounters in a row. Most recently, at the 2026 Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz secured a straight-sets 3-0 victory (7-6, 6-4, 7-5) in the round of 16 on his way to the title.

Tommy Paul – Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

On paper, there’s a strong case for a clear-cut result. Carlitos has already won the tournament in the Big Apple twice and has a record of 27 wins in 30 singles matches, while local favorite Tommy Paul has never advanced past the round of 16. Moreover, the American has already had to play 13 sets on his way to the round of 16, while Carlos Alcaraz had no trouble whatsoever with his opponents, even when he wasn’t playing at his best. This gives the impression that the Spaniard could still step it up at any time following his long injury layoff, which makes him seem all the more dangerous.

Accordingly, we’re taking a chance on Carlitos winning this round of 16 match in straight sets, 3-0. Betano is offering odds of 2.02 for Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz, and we’re betting four out of ten units on this outcome.